A New Approach to Bilateral Trade Patterns and Balances

本项目首次在世界贸易数据上实现了一个模型，该模型根据同质商品和差异化商品的不同贸易逻辑，对双边贸易进行了适当的预测。本研究考察了61个国家30个行业的双边出口。本研究坚持假设存在两种类型的商品：传统重力框架中考虑的差异化商品和一组同质商品。本研究在方法上的贡献将是制定一种程序，以确定这两种商品中的每一种，并预测每种商品的贸易模式。这是在最大似然估计的背景下进行的。研究结果将有助于更好地了解双边贸易模式和平衡的决定因素。一种改进的双边贸易模式对于审议许多问题也可能是重要的，而重力框架一直是这些问题的关键投入。最后，该项目的一个产出将是用于计算双边贸易模式的程序，以便其他人可以很容易地应用该方法。

This project implements for the first time on world trade data a model that appropriately predicts bilateral trade in both homogeneous and differentiated goods according to the distinct logic of trade in each. This study examines bilateral exports for 30 industries and 61 countries. This study takes as a maintained assumption that there are two types of goods: the differentiated goods contemplated in the conventional gravity framework and a set of homogeneous goods. The methodological contribution in this study will be the development of a procedure to identify each of the two types of goods and to predict the trade patterns in each. This is undertaken in the context of maximum likelihood estimation. The results will provide a better understanding of the determinants of bilateral trade patterns and balances. An improved model of bilateral trade may also be important for consideration of many problems for which the gravity framework has been a key input. Finally, one output of this project will be the program used to compute the bilateral trade patterns, so that others can easily apply the methodology.