Collaborative Research: An Integrated Assessment of the Arctic Freshwater System: Analysis of Retrospective and Contemporary Conditions

这项建议是对泛北极水循环的综合和综合研究。将开发一个扩展的北极区域综合监测系统(E-RIMS)，将泛北极陆地和大气(北极-RIMS)现有的、可操作的水文监测系统与北冰洋和海冰部分连接起来。在陆地方面，E-RIMS将产生时变的大气和陆地地表水收支，包括北冰洋的河流和冰川融化输入。对于海洋，来自大气和陆地的淡水通量将与观测到的质量、热量和动量强迫相结合，以驱动海洋-海冰-大气耦合模式。这些关联的模型将用于研究大气和陆地中淡水通量的来源，以及水如何在海洋中以固体(海冰)和液体的形式分配。E-RIMS还将跟踪淡水从大陆架向下到混合层以下的输送，并横向向通往北大西洋的海峡输送。近实时监测方案和历史分析(自1960年以来)为了解未来北极水文循环的变化提供了一个重要基准。根据目前的北极圈议定书，将提供临时数据集(大约延迟1-2个月)，然后每年重新分析，以提高质量保证。将提供陆地和海水平衡的所有关键要素，包括对潜在误差的评估。业务数据集将在伙伴机构的网站上和通过NSIDC免费获取。E-RIMS将通过向他们提供初始条件和边界条件，并开展一系列初步数值实验，以帮助设计计算成本更高的反馈研究，来补充使用更充分耦合的空气-陆地-海洋模式的其他调查人员的努力。作为这项工作的最后一部分，将使用数值预报和中期预报来探索在这项研究过程中将发展多少技能。

This proposal is a synthesis and integration study of the pan-Arctic water cycle. An Expanded Arctic Regional Integrated Monitoring System (E-RIMS) will be developed that links an existing, operational hydrological monitoring system for the pan-Arctic landmass and atmosphere (Arctic-RIMS) to an Arctic Ocean and sea ice component. On the terrestrial side, E-RIMS will produce time varying aerological and land surface water budgets including river and ice melt inputs to the Arctic Ocean. For the ocean, freshwater fluxes from the atmosphere and land will be used in concert with observed mass, heat and momentum forcing to drive a coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere model. The linked models will be used to examine the origin of freshwater fluxes in the atmosphere and landmass and how water is then partitioned between solid (sea ice) and liquid forms in the ocean. E-RIMS will also track freshwater transport off the shelf, downward below the mixed layer, and laterally toward the straits leading to the North Atlantic Ocean. The near real-time monitoring program and historical analysis (from 1960) provides an important benchmark for understanding future change to the arctic hydrologic cycle. In keeping with current Arctic-RIMS protocols, provisional data sets (ca. 1-2 month delay) will be made available and then re-analyzed at yearly intervals for improved quality assurance. All key elements of the terrestrial and ocean water balance will be provided, including an assessment of potential error. Operational data sets will be freely accessible on partner institution web sites and through NSIDC. E-RIMS will complement efforts by other investigators using more fully coupled air-land-ocean models, by providing to them initial and boundary conditions and by carrying-out a set of preliminary numerical experiments to help design their more computationally expensive feedback studies. As a final part of this work, NWP predictions and medium-term forecasts will be used to explore how much skill will have been developed over the course of this study.