Predictability of Open Water in the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas and Other Regions

楚科奇海/波弗特海及其他地区开放水域的可预测性

• 批准号: 1603914
• 负责人: Mark Serreze
• 金额: $ 71.33万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Boulder
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-07-15 至 2020-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1603914&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Predictability; Open; Water; Chukchi; Beaufort

This grant supports an effort to assess and implement approaches to predict the timing of autumn freeze-up and spring-summer ice retreat in the Arctic coastal seas. The study is motivated by recognition that the Arctic Ocean is becoming more accessible for resource exploration, marine shipping, tourism and other activities, increasing the need for reliable seasonal predictions of ice conditions. The project will focus on regional scales addressing stakeholder needs. All Arctic coastal
seas and the channels of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago will be examined, but emphasis will be placed on the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. This recognizes these regions as foci for resource exploration, where ships entering or exiting the Arctic Ocean via Bering Strait must pass, and as part of the seasonal bowhead whale migration route supporting subsistence hunting. The core of the proposed approach is that the date of the spring/summer sea ice retreat to a given location (e.g., the continental shelf break) can be used to predict the date of the autumn advance back to that location (i.e. freeze-up), and hence the open water period. This reflects albedo feedback and ocean heat uptake processes that have always been part of the sea ice system. Briefly, earlier seasonal sea ice melt and retreat leads to earlier exposure of dark open water areas that readily absorb solar radiation, meaning more heat in the ocean mixed layer at summer's end, delaying autumn ice growth. This is manifested in observations that the upward trend in the open water period in the Chukchi Sea is driven more by later autumn return of ice than an earlier spring/summer retreat, and that there is a strong relationship between ice retreat and return in de-trended time series of the two variables. Factors such as atmospheric variability and ocean heat transport are viewed as modulating expressions of albedo feedback and ocean heat uptake; such variables, along with seasonal climate forecasts, will be examined as additional predictors. It will be determined in which
sectors predictions are most and least skillful, the reasons for these differences, and whether
the changing sea ice regime (e.g., changing ice thickness) is changing predictability. In
addition, multiple processes, including winter atmospheric conditions, ocean heat transport, ice thickness and surface melt onset, will be examined as sources of predictability on the
date of retreat. The study will utilize satellite observations of sea ice extent and concentration, surface melt onset, ice motion, thickness and age, ocean heat flux measurements, and output
from the NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System, Version 2, along with fields of sea level pressure, temperature and other variables from two modern atmospheric reanalyses. The Arctic Ocean, particularly the Chukchi and Beaufort seas, is of growing strategic importance
to our nation. The proposed
effort to provide skillful seasonal predictions of sea ice conditions at the regional scale
serves the goal of improving methods of connecting science with decision making through addressing diverse stakeholder needs, including marine
shipping agencies, extraction industries and subsistence hunting. Support is included for a graduate student and undergraduate students to help educate the next generation of scientists, and study results will be assimilated
into an Arctic climate course at the University of Colorado.

该赠款支持一种评估和实施方法，以预测北极沿海海域中秋天的冻结和春季冰静置的时机。这项研究是出于认识到，北极海洋越来越多地用于资源探索，海洋运输，旅游和其他活动，从而增加了对冰条件的可靠季节性预测的需求。该项目将集中于满足利益相关者需求的区域规模。将检查所有北极沿海的海洋和加拿大北极群岛的渠道，但将被审查，但重点将放在Chukchi和Beaufort Seas上。这将这些地区视为资源探索的焦点，在这种情况下，必须通过白令海峡进入或退出北极海洋的船只必须通过，并且作为季节性弓头鲸鱼迁移路线的一部分，支持狩猎生存。拟议方法的核心是，可以使用春夏海冰撤退到给定位置的日期（例如，大陆架断裂）可用于预测秋天的日期回到该位置（即冻结），因此可以预测开放水域。这反映了反照率反馈和海洋热吸收过程，这些过程始终是海冰系统的一部分。简而言之，较早的季节性海冰融化和静修会导致较早的黑暗开放水域暴露，这些区域容易吸收太阳辐射，这意味着夏季结束时海洋混合层的热量增加，从而延迟了秋天的冰冰的生长。这表明这表明，楚科奇海开放水时期的上升趋势比以后的秋季回报率要比春季/夏季较早的静修所驱动，并且在两个变量的消除时间序列中，冰撤退与回报之间存在牢固的关系。大气变异性和海洋热传输等因素被视为反照率反馈和海洋热吸收的调节表达。此类变量以及季节性气候预测将被检查为其他预测因子。将确定＆＃8232;部门的预测是最熟练和最不熟练的原因，这些差异的原因，以及是否不断变化的海冰制度（例如，变化的冰层厚度）正在改变可预测性。在此外，还将检查多个过程，包括冬季大气条件，海洋热传输，冰厚度和表面融化的发作，被检查为＆＃8232;撤退日期的可预测性来源。该研究将利用海冰范围和浓度，表面熔体发作，冰运动，厚度和年龄，海洋热通量测量以及来自NCEP耦合气候预测系统的输出＆＃8232;的卫星观察结果，以及两个现代大气层的海平面，温度和其他变量的领域。北极海，尤其是丘奇（Chukchi）和博福特海（Beaufort Sean），对我们的国家来说具有越来越多的战略意义。提议的努力在区域规模上提供熟练的季节性预测季节性预测＆＃8232;通过满足各种利益相关者的需求，包括海洋，运输机构，提取行业和享用遗产，将科学与决策联系起来的目标是改善科学与决策的方法。包括研究生和本科生的支持，以帮助教育下一代科学家，研究结果将被吸收到科罗拉多大学的北极气候课程中。