Constructing Interregional Commodity-Industry Accounts for U.S. States

各种机制将地区经济的命运相互联系起来。这些联系可以是政治的、社会的和经济的，不仅可以涉及信息流，也可以涉及商品和服务(商品)的流动。通过信息和商品交换(区域间贸易)，经济动力在经济系统中的各个区域传递。因此，一个区域的经济增长可以刺激其他区域经济，同样，一个区域的经济衰退可能会对其他相互依存的区域产生负面影响。通过提供区域间信息和商品流动的正式说明，可以加强对这些区域间联系的性质的了解。这项研究将以美国各州之间的区域间大宗商品贸易的形式提供这样的代表，描绘出行业和机构的起源和目的地。该项目侧重于对国家间商品交换的估计，将区域间要素流动和区域间机构间流动的估计作为未来研究的途径。来自两个来源的信息被用来估计贸易流量。第一个是商业上可用的数据集，列举了区域内的商品、要素和机构流动，第二个是运输统计局进行的商品流动调查(CFS)中公开获得的运输发货量数据。由于披露规则和统计可靠性问题使得无法使用未经修改的CFS数据，该项目使用三阶段方法生成与公布的国家数据一致的区域间商品流动核算框架。首先，对CFS数据中的空间规律性进行了计量经济学评估。第二，运用最优化技术，按商品估算区域间流动总额。第三，这些关系的结构被用来将区域内账户映射到一致的多区域系统。该项目产生的区域间数据库将为广泛的分析研究提供基础，促进对美国州和州际经济体系的了解和了解。该数据库的分析将包括对经济结构和结构变化的研究，以及按州确定关键工业部门和关键的州际联系。该数据库将被用作专门为分析各种政策的经济影响而制定的一系列扩展模型的基础，包括那些侧重于贸易、交通基础设施和经济发展的政策。

Various mechanisms link the fortunes of regional economies to one another. These linkages can be political, social, and economic, and can involve not only flows of information, but also flows of goods and services (commodities). Through the exchange of information and commodities (interregional trade), economic impulses are transmitted throughout the regions in an economic system. Hence, economic growth in one region can stimulate other regional economies, and likewise, downturns in the economy of one region can have negative impacts on other interdependent regions. Understanding the nature of these interregional linkages can be enhanced by providing a formal representation of information and commodity flows among regions. This research will provide such a representation in the form of interregional trades of commodities among US states, delineating both industry and institutional origins and destinations. The project focuses on the estimation of interstate exchanges of commodities, leaving the estimation of interregional factor flows and interregional inter-institutional flows as avenues for future research. Information from two sources is used in estimating the trade flows. The first is a commercially available dataset that enumerates intraregional commodity, factor and institutional flows, and the second is publicly available transportation shipment data from the Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) conducted by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Because disclosure rules and statistical reliability problems make it impossible to use the unmodified CFS data, the project uses a three-phase method to generate an interregional commodity flow accounting framework that is consistent with published national data. First, spatial regularities within the CFS data are estimated econometrically. Second, optimization techniques are applied to estimate gross interregional flows by commodity. Third, the structure of these relationships is used to map the intraregional accounts to a consistent multiregional system. The interregional database that results from this project will provide a foundation for a wide variety of analytical research advancing knowledge and understanding of the US state and interstate economic system. Analyses that will flow from this database include studies of economic structure and structural change, and the identification of key industry sectors and critical interstate linkages by state. The database will find use as the foundation of a range of extended models formulated specifically to analyze the economic impacts of various policies, including those that focus on trade, transportation infrastructure, and economic development.