Understanding Arctic Surface Climate Simulation Errors

该项目讨论了哪些过程维持了观测到的北极地面天气模式，特别是低空风和海平面气压;哪些过程是北极地面气候误差的关键，以及如何在模型模拟中改进这些过程。该工作计划描述了对观测和模拟气候学的分析，以确定影响北极海平面气压和风分布的本地机制（辐射、温度、低空云量分布和地表特性）和远程机制（中纬度锋面气旋活动、行星波和与地形有关的问题），从而确定地表气候响应。将采用一系列模型来确定哪些字段是现有分析错误的主要贡献者。预计模型运行将确定这些错误是如何发展的，并测试模型修改。这项研究有望通过减少模型的不确定性使气候建模界受益，并通过提高我们对北极地区气候变化问题及其相关全球影响的认识使更广泛的公众受益。该项目将资助两名研究生。

This project addresses which processes maintain the observed Arctic surface weather patterns, especially low level wind and sea level pressure; which processes are key to Arctic surface climate error, and how these processes might be improved in model simulations. The work plan describes the analyses of observed and modeled climatologies to determine both local (the distribution of radiation, temperature, low level cloud cover, and surface properties) and remote (middle latitude frontal cyclone activity, planetary waves, and topography-related issues) mechanisms that influence the distribution of Arctic sea-level pressure and winds, with a view to establishing the surface climate response. A sequence of models will be employed to identify which fields are the primary contributors to existing analysis errors. The model runs are expected to identify how these errors develop and to test model modifications. This research is expected to benefit the climate modeling community by reducing model uncertainties, and benefit the wider public by enhancing our knowledge of climate change issues in the Arctic region and their related global implications. Two graduate students will be supported by this project.