Consumer-Resource Dynamics in a Changing Climate: Two Case Studies

在过去的一个世纪里，地球表面已经变暖了大约0.6摄氏度，预计下个世纪还将经历1.4到5.8摄氏度的进一步变暖。预测物种在气候变暖中的表现的一个核心挑战是了解生物对气候变化的反应可能如何影响它们与其他物种的相互作用，这最终将决定它们在未来的存在或消失。为了完成这项任务，我们将在两个研究得很好的系统中研究气候变化改变物种相互作用的机制：黄石国家公园和皇家岛国家公园的灰狼食物网。1995年将灰狼重新引入黄石国家公园，为比较有和没有Keystone顶级捕食者的生态系统在不同气候变化情景下的功能提供了一个研究机会。来自皇家岛的长期数据，关于狼和驼鹿数量的变化，以及香脂冷杉生长的变化，允许对社区对气候变化的反应进行独特的分析。这项研究将通过提供对快速气候变化对物种相互作用的后果的洞察，以及通过对气候变化对两个国家公园中以狼为媒介的系统的潜在后果的预测，为应用生态学和管理学做出贡献。

The Earth's surface has warmed by approximately 0.6C over the past century, and is expected to experience a further warming of 1.4 to 5.8C over the next century. A central challenge to predicting how species will fare in a warmer climate is to understand how the responses of organisms to climate change are likely to affect their interactions with other species, which will ultimately determine their presence or absence in the future. In order to accomplish this task, we will study the mechanisms by which climate change alters species interactions in two well-studied systems: gray wolf food webs in Yellowstone National Park and Isle Royale National Park. The reintroduction of gray wolves to Yellowstone National Park in 1995 provides a research opportunity for comparing the functioning of an ecosystem with and without a keystone top predator under different climate change scenarios. Long-term data from Isle Royale, on changes in the numbers of wolves and moose, and on changes in growth of balsam fir, allow for a unique analysis of community response to climate change. This research will contribute to both ecological theory, by providing insight into the consequences of rapid climate change for species interactions, and to applied ecology and management, by generating predictions about the potential consequences of climate change for wolf-mediated systems in two National Parks.