MSPA-CSE: Analysis and Detection of Transient Dynamics in Ecological Systems

生态学理论中的许多传统方法都是基于自然生态系统恢复稳定状态的范式。因此，处理环境问题的传统方法利用大量的数学和统计技术来分析这些系统。然而，这些方法有明显的局限性。正如生态学家强调长期实验与短期实验产生不同的结果一样，理论需要考虑到时间尺度的作用，并超越对稳定性的强调。在此提案的背景下，PI将开发数学和统计工具，以了解生态系统中瞬态动力学（与稳定性相关的动力学相反）的作用。这项研究将有助于我们对真实生态系统的基本认识，并改进旧的环境管理方法，开辟新的环境管理方法。为了应对人类可能对生态系统造成的经常突然而巨大的影响，人们对管理策略的兴趣日益浓厚，管理策略随着管理者的学习和生态系统受到新冲击的困扰而变化。然而，实施适应性管理需要对系统的短期观察动态如何产生最终决定可持续性的长期模式有更深入的了解。学生还将接受重要的跨学科培训。

Many of the traditional approaches in ecological theory are based on the paradigm that natural ecosystems return to stable states. Thus, traditional approaches to environmental problems draw on the large body of mathematical and statistical techniques for analyzing such systems. These approaches, however, have clear limitations. Just as ecologists emphasize that long-term experiments yield different results from short-term experiments, theory needs to take the role of time scales into account, and look beyond an emphasis on stability. In the context of this proposal, the PI's will develop the mathematical and statistical tools to understand the role of transient dynamics (as opposed to dynamics connected with stability) in ecological systems. This study will both aid our basic understanding of real ecological systems, and refine old and open up new approaches to environmental management. To cope with the often sudden and large impacts that humans can have on ecosystems, there is growing interest in management strategies that change as managers learn and as an ecosystem is beset by new shocks. Implementing adaptive management, however, requires a far more sophisticated understanding of how short-term, observed dynamics of a system generate long-term patterns that ultimately determine sustainability. Students will also receive important interdisciplinary training.