LTREB: Integrating Long-term Demographic Data and Repeated Genetic Sampling for Viability Analysis of Natural and Restored Populations of Pitcher's Thistle

联邦政府列出的七种受威胁的投手蓟（Cirsium pitcheri）是一种稀有的植物，只生长在西部五大湖的海岸线上，目前正在评估其长期的种群生存能力。我们的研究汇集了长期的人口统计数据集，重复的分子遗传采样和定量性状变异评估，以评估自然和恢复植物种群的种群生存能力和灭绝风险。本课题研究的基本问题是：(1)种群生存力分析能否准确预测种群趋势和灭绝概率；(2)恢复种群是否遵循与自然种群相似的进化轨迹，即恢复种群与自然种群之间的人口统计学和遗传参数是否不同？美国国家科学基金会的支持将继续长期的数据收集和扩展模型，以整合多个恢复种群和自然种群的人口统计学和遗传变异。这将大大提高我们研究的稳健性和适用性，以了解长期人口变化如何影响种群生存能力，并加强这一濒危物种的恢复和管理。尽管需要长期的人口统计数据和重复的遗传分析来准确地模拟种群生存能力，但这样的数据集很少，我们的数据集代表了濒危物种恢复种群和自然种群的独特组合。我们的工作也符合联邦对该物种研究和恢复的恢复计划目标。

Seven populations of the federally-listed threatened Pitcher's thistle (Cirsium pitcheri), a rare plant restricted to the shorelines of the western Great Lakes, are being assessed for long-term population viability. Our research brings together a long-term demographic data set, repeated molecular genetic sampling and an assessment of quantitative trait variation to assess population viability and extinction risk of natural and restored plant populations. The fundamental questions addressed in this project are: (1) Does population viability analysis accurately predict population trends and extinction probabilities; and (2) Do restored populations follow a similar evolutionary trajectory as natural populations, i.e. do demographic and genetic parameters differ between restored and natural populations? Support from NSF will continue long-term data collection and expand modeling to integrate demographic and genetic variation of multiple restored and natural populations of C. pitcheri. This will greatly improve the robustness and applicability of our research toward understanding how long-term demographic variability affects population viability, as well as enhance restoration and management of this threatened species. Despite the need for long-term demographic data and repeated genetic analysis to accurately model population viability, few such data sets exist, and ours represents a unique combination for restored and natural populations of a threatened species. Our work also meets federal recovery planning objectives for research and restoration of this species.