New Strategies for State Development Policy Under Globalization: Risk Reduction, Transnational bargaining and Income Rationing in the Promotion of Employment in Northeast Brazil

全球化背景下国家发展政策的新策略：降低风险、跨国议价和收入配给在促进巴西东北地区就业中的作用[j]塞缪尔·科恩（Samuel cohn）教授，美国德克萨斯州A & M大学社会学系摘要/综述。这个项目的目标是确定什么样的国家政策可以有效地增加第三世界的就业。第三世界的债务危机削弱了欠发达国家政府为促进经济增长而实施昂贵的国内支出计划的能力。这一现实迫使许多拉美、亚洲和非洲国家的政府设计新的经济发展战略，这些战略的执行成本较低。本项目旨在评估这些新方案在巴西东北部三个行业中的有效性。如果好的结果实际上是简单的自由市场过程的结果，该项目使用了一种创新的方法来防止将成功错误地归因于政治计划。一个统计模型被用来估计由市场导向力量产生的就业数量。在市场力量受到统计控制后，各州根据就业率高低进行排名。然后，这些排名与衡量各种政府计划的存在和资金的指标相关联，以评估这些政策对创造就业的独立贡献。更广泛的影响。在第三世界，了解什么样的政府项目能或不能增加就业或收入，对于在预算限制的条件下制定健全的公共政策至关重要。确定对经济福祉几乎没有实质性影响的昂贵项目可以帮助确定政府浪费的来源，并允许将稀缺资源重新分配到更有用的领域。帮助财政困难的第三世界政府增加就业和收入，同时尽量减少公共支出水平，可以减少第三世界的贫困，降低婴儿死亡率，同时保持基本的财政责任

NEW STRATEGIES FOR STATE DEVELOPMENT POLICY UNDER GLOBALIZATION: RISK REDUCTION, TRANSNATIONAL BARGAINING AND INCOME RATIONING IN THE PROMOTION OF EMPLOYMENT IN NORTHEAST BRAZILProfessor Samuel CohnDepartment of SociologyTexas A & M UniversityABSTRACTOverview. The goal of this project is to determine what types of state policies can effectively increase employment in the third world. The third world debt crisis has reduced the capacity of governments in underdeveloped countries to engage in expensive programs of domestic spending oriented to produce economic growth. This reality has forced many Latin American, Asian and African governments to design new strategies of economic development that can be executed cheaply. The present project is designed to evaluate the effectiveness of these new programs within three industries in Northeastern Brazil. The project uses an innovative methodology to prevent the false attribution of success to a political program, if the good results are in fact the result of simple free market processes. A statistical model is used to estimate the amount of employment that would have been generated by market-oriented forces. States are then ranked by high or low employment after market forces have been statistically controlled. These rankings are then correlated with indicators measuring the presence and funding of various government programs to assess the independent contribution of these policies to creating jobs.Broader Impact. Knowing what kind of government programs do or do not raise employment or income can be critical in the third world to the development of sound public policy under conditions of budgetary restraints. The identification of expensive programs that have little substantive impact of economic well being can help identify sources of government waste and allow the reallocation of scarce resources into more useful areas. Helping financially strapped third world governments raise employment and income while minimizing levels of public expenditure can reduce third world poverty, and lower levels of infant mortality while maintaining fundamental fiscal responsibility