AOC: Global State Formation: Modeling the Rise, Fall and Upward Sweeps of Large Polities in World History and the Global Future

christopher Chase-DunnEugene N. AndersonPeter turchina university of California-Riverside在过去的200年里，国际政府组织和跨国非政府组织的出现构成了世界国家形成的第一个开端，民族国家也被部分地重新配置为日益一体化的全球精英的工具。世界国家的形成可能是可取的，因为人类技术和社会变革所产生的问题在范围上日益全球化。但一个世界国家需要在地球上大多数人的眼中合法化，这意味着民主必须在全球范围内建立。该项目允许pi根据增长、衰退和系统转型模型来研究全球政治一体化的几种可能的未来轨迹，这些模型是通过研究过去3000年来几个地区的政治一体化模式而发展起来的。该项目的主要目的是研究和模拟过去3000年来世界上选定地区的国家增长。在19世纪和20世纪，洲际交往的扩大和加强被称为全球化。但早期的区域系统也表现出类似的“全球化”浪潮，尽管是在较小的空间尺度上，这些网络扩张和收缩的浪潮，偶尔被网络规模的巨大跳跃所打断，最终导致了现代全球社会体系的形成。该项目将研究互动网络随时间的空间性质，以及这些网络与城市和州的增长下降/阶段之间的关系。这个为期三年的项目将利用对城市和国家规模、气候变化、贸易路线和战争的最新升级估计，开发、参数化和测试社会变化模型。该项目将开发一个新的农业国家增长和衰退的动态理论综合模型，网络理论，人口压力和生态模型，并解释现代霸权的兴衰。这些指数将检验“半外围发展”的假设——这种观点认为，主要是半外围社会扩大了网络，建立了更大的国家，创新和实施了新的权力技术和新的生产技术，这些技术改变了社会变革的逻辑。更广泛的影响：该项目的成果将使人们更好地了解历史社会演变的长期模式及其对人类未来的影响，特别是世界国家形成。世界历史系统时间地图将是一个时空网络数据集，将提供给学者和学生研究国际政治一体化的可能轨迹。

SBE -0527720Christopher Chase-DunnEugene N. AndersonPeter TurchinUniversity of California-Riverside In the last 200 years international governmental and transnational non-governmental organizations have emerged that constitute the first beginnings of world state formation, and the national states have been partially reconfigured as instruments of an increasingly integrated global elite. World state formation may be desirable because the problems created by human technological and social change are increasingly global in scope. But a world state will need to be legitimated in the eyes of a majority of the human population of the Earth and this means that democracy must be constructed on a global scale. This project allows the PIs to examine several probable future trajectories of global political integration based on models of growth, decline and systemic transformation that are developed by studying patterns of political integration in several regions over the past 3000 years. The main purpose of the proposed project is to study and model the growth of states in selected regions of the world over the past 3000 years. In the nineteenth and twentieth centuries expansion and intensification of intercontinental interactions has been called globalization. But earlier regional systems also exhibited similar waves of "globalization," albeit on a smaller spatial scale, and these waves of network expansion and contraction, punctuated by occasional huge jumps in the scale of networks, eventually led to the formation of the modern global social system. This project will study the spatial nature of interaction networks over time and the relationship between these networks and the growth decline/phases of cities and states. The three-year project will develop, parameterize and test models of social change using newly upgraded estimates of the sizes of cities and states, climate change, trade routes, and warfare.The project will develop a new theoretical synthesis) model of the dynamics of agrarian state growth and decline, network theory, a population pressure and ecological model, and explanations of the rise and fall of modern hegemons. The PIs will test the hypothesis of "semiperipheral development" - the idea that that it has mainly been semiperipheral societies that have expanded networks, made larger states, and innovated and implemented new techniques of power and new productive technologies that have transformed the very logic of social change.Broader Impacts: The products of the project will provide a better understanding of long-run patterns of historical social evolution and their implications for the human future, especially world state formation. The World Historical Systems Time Map will be a spatio-temporal web-enabled data set that will be made available to scholars and students for studying probable trajectories of international political integration.