A Parametric Model of Social Judgment

拟议的研究解决了一个基本的心理学问题：在什么条件下，可获得的信息会对个人的判断产生适当的影响？历史上充满了个人和组织做出错误判断和错误决定的例子，因为他们没有考虑到所有可用的相关信息。例如，1986年的挑战者号航天飞机灾难和2003年的哥伦比亚号航天飞机灾难都是在这样的信息背景下发生的，这些信息的适当考虑可能避免了导致悲剧性后果的决定。目前的研究计划调查了一个人类判断的总体模型，旨在解决这些问题。从本质上讲，该模型断言，要产生影响，所提供的信息必须在主观上与接受者相关。但这还不够。接受者有责任认识到现有信息的价值和相关性。这反过来又取决于识别的难度（即信息的信噪比）以及克服困难所需的个人心理和动机资源。该模型参照社会和认知心理学家确定的各种经典判断问题进行了测试，包括统计信息的忽视，个性印象的形成，以及在期望信念和结果方向上的判断扭曲。除了阐明判断和决策中的主要问题的兴趣价值之外，目前的理论和拟议的研究承诺实现概念整合，以确定该领域中众多独立模型共享的关键共性。更普遍的是，目前的观点强调了基本判断过程中跨性别、种族、文化或年龄的共性。它强调，除了不可否认的表面差异之外，就心理过程而言，人们有着共同的人性。了解这些共性可能有助于改善不同背景的个人和群体之间的沟通。

The proposed research addresses a fundamental psychological question: Under what conditions would available information have an appropriate impact on an individual's judgments? History is filled with examples of people and organizations making faulty judgments and erroneous decisions because they did not take into account all of the relevant information available to them. For example, the Challenger shuttle disaster in 1986, and the Columbia shuttle disaster in 2003 occurred against a background of information whose appropriate consideration may have averted the decisions leading to tragic consequences. The present program of research investigates an overarching model of human judgments designed to address these questions. Essentially, the model asserts that to make impact the information given has to be subjectively relevant to the recipient. But this is not enough. It is incumbent that the recipient recognize the value and relevance of the information that is available. This, in turn, depends on the difficulty of discernment (i.e. the signal to noise ratio of the information) and on the individual's mental and motivational resources needed to overcome the difficulty. The model is tested in reference to a variety of classic judgmental problems identified by social and cognitive psychologists, including the neglect of statistical information, the formation of personality impressions, and the distortions of judgments in the direction of desired beliefs and outcomes. Beyond its interest value in illuminating a major problem in judgment and decision making, the present theory and the proposed research promise to effect a conceptual integration that identifies the critical commonalities shared by numerous separate models in this domain. More generally yet, the present perspective highlights the commonality in basic judgmental process across gender, ethnicity, culture, or age. It stresses that beyond undeniable superficial differences, people share a common humanity as far as their psychological processes are concerned. Understanding these commonalities may contribute to the improvement of communication among individuals and groups of diverse backgrounds.