Doctoral Dissertation Research: Uncertainty, reputation effects, and relational formation

对许多人来说，互联网仍然是一个匿名、普遍自动化和欺诈的世界。然而，大规模在线市场的成功激发了人们对反馈系统作为市场不确定性问题的制度解决方案的兴趣。在eBay上，买家可以在交易后对卖家进行评分;他们的反馈点数会被统计出来，并公布在他们的网名旁边，供其他买家查看。在亚马逊，客户同样可以对产品进行评级。有趣的是，eBay和亚马逊有非常相似的反馈系统，但eBay是一个客户对客户的网站，而亚马逊是一个企业对客户的网站，在市场不确定性的类型上有重要的区别。在eBay中，匿名陌生人之间的交易普遍存在信任和可信度问题。在亚马逊，欺诈是罕见的。相反，主要的问题是在庞大的产品库存中搜索的成本。这些差异表明，他们的反馈系统可能会有不同的工作方式，但如何？该提案认为，在亚马逊这样的市场中，声誉通过识别“信誉良好”的卖家或产品来促进交易。在eBay等市场中，声誉的关键作用是通过反馈交换来约束卖家。我用实验室实验来检验这一论点。如果得到证实，该研究不仅将扩展我们对声誉如何调节不同类型市场不确定性的理论理解，而且还将为设计在线市场提供实用见解。虽然实体市场通过自下而上的过程缓慢出现，但在线市场可以更快，更便宜，更有目的地创建。因此，当我们进入数字经济的新时代时，了解是什么使在线市场有效至关重要。

For many, the Internet is still a world of anonymity, pervasive automation, and fraud. Yet, the success of large-scale online markets has inspired much interest in feedback systems as an institutional solution to the problem of market uncertainty. In eBay, buyers can rate sellers after transactions; their feedback points are tallied and posted publicly next to their screen names for other buyers to view. In Amazon, customers can likewise rate products. Interestingly, EBay and Amazon have very similar feedback systems, yet eBay is a customer-to-customer site, while Amazon is a business-to-customer site, with important differences in the types of market uncertainty. In eBay, there is a pervasive problem of trust and trustworthiness casting over transactions between anonymous strangers. In Amazon, fraud is rare. Instead, the main problem is the cost of search through an enormous inventory of products. These differences suggest that their feedback systems might work differently, but how? This proposal argues that, in markets like Amazon, reputations facilitate transactions by identifying "reputable" sellers or products. In markets like eBay, the crucial role of reputations is to discipline sellers through feedback exchange. I test this thesis using laboratory experiments. If confirmed, the research will not only extend our theoretical understanding of how reputations moderate different types of market uncertainty, but also provide practical insights for designing online markets. Whereas brick-and-mortar markets emerge slowly through bottom-up processes, online markets can be created vastly more rapidly, cheaply, and purposefully. Understanding what makes an online market effective is therefore crucial as we enter the new age of digital economy.