Interannual and Decadal Variability in the Equatorial Pacific Atmosphere and Ocean

初步研究表明，在1950年之前，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）指数的年代际和更长时间变化相关性较差。如果没有对这些指数的准确了解，就不可能评估大气和海洋的年代际和更长时间的变化如何影响厄尔尼诺事件的大小和频率。这项研究的两个主要目标是获得关键ENSO指数的准确长期记录，并利用它们和海洋模型来检验关于赤道太平洋年际和年代际海洋-大气变化的观测和理论推测。PI的目标是：1；获得在年际、年代际和更长时间尺度上准确的ENSO关键指数的长期记录。即使是对ENSO关键海表温度（SST）指数的最佳估计，如NINO3.4（赤道太平洋中东部地区5S-5N， 170W-120W的平均海表温度异常）也只使用海表温度数据来估计该指数。在本项目中，将使用与索引数据在物理上密切相关的其他数据来帮助估计和验证索引。该分析还将利用ENSO指数的日历年锁相特性，并将包括以前无法获得的最近数字化的历史数据。分析的一个关键方面是，ENSO指数将使用简单的动态平衡相互检查准确性。2. 测试基于观测和理论的ENSO猜想。PI将使用1中导出的时间序列，以及分析/数值模型，来解决由观测和基于理论的猜想产生的问题。厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜的振幅是否取决于海底状态的长期变化？在放电/充电ENSO振荡器范例中真的存在不对称吗？这些不对称是否取决于年代际变化？放电/充电振荡器范例是否在年代际时间尺度上运行？更广泛的影响。根据PI的课程和这项研究，计划即将完成的《厄尔尼诺和南方涛动动力学》一书将对佛罗里达州立大学内外的研究生和研究人员有用。ENSO气候波动影响到农业、水资源、渔业、飓风和野火的次数、供暖/制冷的能源需求以及某些地区饥荒和疾病的流行。本研究目标的实现将有助于加深对ENSO及其年代际变化影响的认识。这将使指数能够更好地预测ENSO，特别是在统计预测模型在年代际变化下可能是非平稳的情况下。

Preliminary research shows that the decadal and longer variability of our best known El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices are poorly correlated before 1950. Without an accurate knowledge of these indices, it is impossible to assess how decadal and longer changes in the atmosphere and ocean affect, for example, the size and frequency of El Nino events. The two major goals of this research are to derive accurate long records of key ENSO indices and to use them and an ocean model to test observational and theoretical conjectures about interannual and decadal ocean-atmosphere variability in the equatorial Pacific. The PI's goals are: 1. Obtain long record of key ENSO indices that are accurate on interannual and decadal and longer time scales. Even the best estimates of key ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) indices like NINO3.4 (the SST anomaly averaged over the east-central equatorial Pacific region 5S-5N, 170W-120W) have only used SST data to estimate that index. In this project other data that are closely linked physically to the index data will be used to help estimate and verify the index. The analysis will also take advantage of the calendar-year phase-locked properties of ENSO indices and will include previously unavailable recently digitized historical data. A key aspect of the analysis is that the ENSO indices will be checked against each other for accuracy using simple dynamical balances. 2. Test observationally-and theoretically-based ENSO conjectures. The PI will use the time series derived in 1, together with an analytical/numerical model, to address questions resulting from observationally and theoretically based conjectures. Does El Nino/La Nina amplitude depend on longer term changes in the underlying ocean state? Are there really asymmetries in the discharge/recharge ENSO oscillator paradigm? Do these asymmetries depend on decadal variability? Does the discharge/recharge oscillator paradigm operate on decadal time scales? Broader Impacts. It is planned that a nearly completed book 'El Nino and the Southern Oscillation Dynamics," which is based on the PI's course and this research, will be useful to graduate students and researchers both within and outside of Florida State. ENSO climate fluctuations influence agriculture, water resources, fisheries, the number of hurricanes and wildfires, energy needs for heating/cooling and the prevalence of famine and disease in certain regions. Achievement of the goals of this research will lead to increased understanding of ENSO and the influence of decadal changes on it. This should enable the PI to predict ENSO better, particularly in the case of statistical prediction models which may be non-stationary under decadal changes.