Market Creation as a Policy Tool for Transformational Change

罗伯特·J·兰伯特史蒂文·W·波珀兰公司以前从未存在过的市场的出现，可能是深刻的社会变革的动因。经济学家对市场如何实现资源的有效配置有了广泛的理解，并催生了一系列工具，供政策分析师用来评估替代政策的福利提升。但政策分析师缺乏对新市场可能对价值观、激励和制度产生的并非罕见的转型影响的类似、完整的理解，而在标准的经济分析中，这些影响通常被认为是不变的。政策制定者和公众如果打算或担心新市场的更广泛后果，将得不到任何实质性的指导。这个项目既整合并促进了对市场诱导的转变的理解，从而开发了一套政策分析工具，以比较和评估寻求通过促进市场转变来实现其目标的替代政策的效果。具体而言，这项研究试图了解：1)市场引起的转变的潜力，即由于市场的存在而引起的行为者、激励措施和机构的变化--如何导致与仅考虑最狭义的市场提高效率潜力时可能预期的结果不同的结果(有些有益，有些可能不那么有利)；以及2)在政策分析员和规划者的计算中，可以在多大程度上系统地考虑到这种由市场引起的动态经济变化的潜力。该项目通过以下方式解决这些问题：i)收集和开发过去市场引起的转型的案例研究；ii)评估和必要地修改旨在捕捉此类转型的关键特征的若干理论框架及其相应的数学模型；iii)使用案例研究和实证分析的结果校准这些模型；以及iv)使用这些模型建立一个决策工具集，用于评估和比较使用市场转型的政策和其他可能的政策方法。更广泛的影响。该项目旨在加深对市场如何在人类社会中引发变革的科学理解。它还将带来几个更广泛的影响。该项目将气候变化作为其政策挑战的典范，旨在为当前的政策辩论提供有用的见解。例如，该项目可能有助于政策制定者更好地理解碳税和交易系统产生技术和/或政治变革的任何不同能力，并帮助裁决“有限部门的大幅减排”和“许多部门的有限减排”作为以可能预防潜在的突然气候变化的速度诱导技术和行为变革的最佳手段的优点。市场诱导转型的主题还包括当今美国在国内外面临的许多最紧迫的政策问题。通过项目团队的初步询问以及与政策制定者和政策群体的广泛互动，该项目将有助于传播决策工具和概念，以提高我国政府更有效地利用和管理市场转型的能力，将其作为一种广泛领域的政策工具。

SBE-0624354Robert J. LempertSteven W. PopperRand CorporationThe appearance of markets where they have not previously existed can be an agent of profound societal change. Economists have developed an extensive understanding of how markets can produce an efficient allocation of resources and spawned an array of tools that policy analysts use to assess the welfare enhancements of alternative policies. But policy analysts lack any similar, integrated understanding of the not-uncommon transformational effects new markets can have on values, incentives, and institutions, all most often assumed to be invariant in standard economic analyses. Policy makers and the public who intend or fear new market's broader consequences are left without any substantive guidance.This project both integrates and advances the understanding of market-induced transformations, thereby developing a set of policy analytic tools to compare and assess the effects of alternative policies that seek to achieve their goals by fostering market transformations. In particular, this study seeks to understand: 1) how the potential for market-induced transformations, that is, changes in actors, incentives and institutions owing to the presence of markets -- can lead to different outcomes (some beneficial some perhaps less so) than might be expected when considering only the most narrowly defined efficiency-enhancing potential of markets; and 2) to what extent it might be possible to account for this potential for dynamic market-induced economic change systematically in the calculations of policy analysts and planners. This project addresses these questions by: i) gathering and developing case studies of past market-induced transformations; ii) evaluating and modifying as necessary several theoretical frameworks and their corresponding mathematical models that aim to capture the key features of such transformations; iii) calibrating these models using the findings from the case studies and empirical analysis; and iv) using these models to establish a decision tool set for assessing and comparing policies using market transformations against other possible policy approaches. Broader Impacts. This project aims to deepen scientific understanding of how markets can induce transformations in human societies. It will also provide several broader impacts. The project uses climate change as its exemplar policy challenge and aims to provide useful insight into current policy debates. For instance, the project may help policy makers better understand any different abilities of carbon taxes and trading systems to produce technological and/or political transformations and help adjudicate the merits of "deep reductions across limited sectors" and "limited reductions over many sectors" as the best means for inducing technological and behavioral transformations at a rate that might forestall potential abrupt climate change. The theme of market-induced transformations also encompasses many of the most pressing policies issues facing the United States today at home and abroad. Through its initial inquiries and extensive interaction with policy makers and the policy community by the project team, this project will help disseminate decision tools and concepts that can improve our government's ability to more effectively exploit and manage market transformations as a policy tool in a wide variety of areas.