Water Cycle Dynamics in a Changing Environment: Advancing Hydrologic Science Through Synthesis

摘要水文科学已经发展到包括来自不同学科的科学家，这是由现在存在于不同科学学科界面的许多具有挑战性的问题所驱动的。已经取得了巨大的进步，但问题的巨大复杂性继续给预测物理、生物、生物地球化学和人类子系统之间的相互作用带来挑战，这些子系统塑造了水文系统的行为，特别是在人类引起的气候和土地利用变化的背景下。专注于单个组成部分或不变的景观或气候的预测不再被认为令人满意。因此，不断变化的环境为改善水循环动力学的可预测性提供了挑战和机遇，通过一种基于广泛科学领域（包括水文学、生态学、地貌学、地球化学和社会科学）的综合观察、分析方法、概念和理论的方法，以一种足以应对我们现在面临和未来将面临的水挑战的方式，为改善水循环动力学的可预测性奠定了坚实的基础。该项目的目的是开展一系列综合活动，这些活动将在“在不断变化的环境中提高水循环动力学的可预测性”这一关键研究领域产生变革性成果，这将成为水文界综合的有效模式。为了实现这一目标，将组建一个有针对性的综合小组和相关的综合活动小组，并通过这些小组开展重点研究活动，以产生成果，这些成果将成为综合力量在调查和解决复杂水文问题方面的国家原型。综合活动将包括各种研讨会、小组研究活动以及网络基础设施的使用。为了开展这一项目，以UIUC为中心，由几个已建立的研究中心作为合作伙伴（NCED, HWR/SAHRA， NCAR， NCEAS， IRI， NCSA）组成了一个研究联盟。合成小组和合成活动小组的成员资格将向伙伴组织以及一般科学界开放。

PIs: Murugesu Sivapalan, Praveen Kumar, Bruce L. Rhoads and Don WuebblesAbstractHydrologic science has evolved to embrace scientists from a diverse range of disciplines, driven by the many challenging problems that now exist at the interface of various science disciplines,. Tremendous strides have been made but the enormous complexity of the problems continues to pose challenges for predicting interactions among the physical, biological, biogeochemical, and human subsystems that shape the behavior of hydrologic systems, especially in the context of human-induced changes to climate and land use. Predictions focused on individual components or unchanging landscapes or climate are no longer deemed satisfactory. The changing environment therefore provides both a challenge and an opportunity for developing sound foundations for improving the predictability of water cycle dynamics through an approach based on a synthesis of observations, analysis methods, concepts and theories across a broad range of scientific fields, including hydrology, ecology, geomorphology, geochemistry, and the social sciences, in a manner sufficient to meet the water challenges we now face and will face in the future. The aim of this project is to conduct a range of synthesis activities that will produce transformational outcomes in the critical research area of "improving predictability of water cycle dynamics in a changing environment," which will serve as an effective model of synthesis within the hydrological community. This objective will be achieved by through the formation of a targeted synthesis team and associated synthesis activity groups, and through these groups, carrying out focused research activities to generate outcomes that will serve as national prototypes of the power of synthesis for investigating and solving complex hydrologic problems. The synthesis activities will consist of a mix of workshops, small-group research activities, combined with the use of cyber-infrastructure. To undertake this project, a research consortium has been formed consisting of several established research centers as partners (NCED, HWR/SAHRA, NCAR, NCEAS, IRI, NCSA) with UIUC acting as the hub. Membership of the synthesis team and synthesis activity groups will be open to partner organizations as well as the general scientific community.