U.S. GLOBEC: NWA Georges Bank - Processes Controlling Abundance of dominant copepod species on Georges Bank: Local dynamics and large-scale forcing.

生物海洋学的一个基本目标是了解潜在的生物-物理相互作用如何决定海洋生物的丰度。对于动物种群来说，众所周知，在早期生命阶段(即招募)控制生存的因素是成年种群数量的强烈决定因素，但由于模型和数据的限制，理解这些过程一直是困难的。数值模拟的最新进展，以及新的3D数据集，为研究控制浮游动物种群大小的生物-物理过程提供了独特的机会。该项目使用现有的最先进的生物/物理数值模型(FVCOM)和最近处理的来自乔治海岸GLOBEC计划的大型3D数据集来进行理想化和现实化的数值实验，以探索控制乔治海岸优势浮游动物物种空间格局季节性演变的详细机制。我们将研究如何在岸上维持优势的桡足类物种种群的假设，包括当地的动态和大规模的强迫。一个具体的目标是确定观察到的每个物种的特征季节和空间模式(长期和年际)是否可以从其特征生活史特征和物理运输之间的相互作用中预测出来。研究将考察可获得食物(自下而上)或捕食(自上而下)过程对桡足类种群的控制程度，包括暖坡水与拉布拉多坡水(依赖NAO)对东北海峡营养物质流入的影响，以及随后的上升流和岸上生物增强。将通过控制来自特定来源地区的移民来研究岸上和缅因湾每个物种种群的自我可持续性。将使用基于盆地尺度数据和同时进行的盆地尺度模拟工作的情景，通过在边界强迫模型来明确地检验包括NAO和灾难性全球变暖(例如，完全极地冰川融化)在内的大尺度强迫。这项模拟研究将为控制海洋中浮游动物数量的局部和大规模过程所起的作用提供新的见解。将被研究的主要桡足类物种包括小型物种，它们是该区域鳕鱼和黑线鳕幼体的主要猎物，因此为同时进行的幼鱼模型研究提供了关键信息。这种详细的、面向过程的、具有边界强迫的区域尺度模拟将为与整个大洋盆地的模型集成奠定基础。由此产生的模型将是GLOBEC乔治斯银行项目的遗产，它为理解局部和大范围强迫如何相互作用来控制海洋浮游生物产量提供了一个强大的新工具。拟议工作的结果将通过使用现有基础设施的基于网络的服务器广泛传播给一般海洋界、渔业、K-12机构和广大民众。基于网络的用户将能够访问模型结果，并使用选定的参数设置运行模型，以获得对给定选定气候强迫情景的洋流、水文和浮游生物丰度模式的预测。与WHOI/UMASS COSEE计划的合作将促进与国内和国际K12学生和公众的交流。

A fundamental goal of Biological Oceanography is to understand how underlying biological-physical interactions determine abundance of marine organisms. For animal populations, it is well known that factors controlling survival during early life stages (i.e., recruitment) are strong determinants of adult population size, but understanding these processes has been difficult due to model and data limitations. Recent advances in numerical modeling, together with new 3D data sets, provide a unique opportunity to study the biological-physical processes controlling zooplankton population size. This project uses an existing state-of-the-art biological/physical numerical model (FVCOM) together with the recently processed large 3D data set from the Georges Bank GLOBEC program to conduct idealized and realistic numerical experiments that explore the detailed mechanisms controlling seasonal evolution of spatial patterns in dominant zooplankton species on Georges Bank. Hypotheses that address how dominant copepod species populations are maintained on the bank, including local dynamics and large-scale forcing will be examined. A specific goal is to determine whether the observed characteristic seasonal and spatial pattern of each species (long-term and inter-annual) is predictable from the interaction between its characteristic life-history traits and physical transport. The extent to which the copepod populations are controled by food-availability (bottom-up) or predation (top-down) processes will be examined, including the influence of Warm Slope Water versus Labrador Slope Water (NAO-dependent) on nutrient influx through the Northeast Channel and subsequent upwelling and biological enhancement on the bank. Self-sustainability of each species population on the bank itself and in the Gulf of Maine will be studied by controlling immigration from specific source regions. Large-scale forcing including NAO and catastrophic global warming (e.g. complete polar ice melt) will be examined explicitly by forcing the model at the boundaries, using scenarios based on basin-scale data and from concurrent basin-scale modeling efforts. This modeling study will provide new insights into the role of local and large-scale processes controlling zooplankton abundance in the ocean. The dominant copepod species to be studied include small species that are the dominant prey for larval cod and haddock in this region, thus providing critical information for concurrent larval fish modeling studies. This detailed, process-oriented, regional-scale modeling with boundary forcing will lay the groundwork for integration with models of the entire ocean basin. The resulting model will be a legacy of the GLOBEC Georges Bank program by providing a powerful new tool for understanding how local and large-scale forcing interact to control plankton production in the sea. Results of the proposed work will be broadly disseminated to the general oceanographic community, the fishing industry, K-12 institutions, and to the population at large, through web-based servers using existing infrastructure. Web-based users will be able to access model results and run the model using chosen parameter settings to obtain predictions of currents, hydrography, and plankton abundance patterns given selected climate forcing scenarios. Collaboration with the WHOI/UMASS COSEE program will foster communication with K12 students and the public both nationally and internationally.