Collaborative Research: NSWP: Generation of Global Forecasts of Middle and Upper Atmospheric Gravity Wave Activity as Applied to the Prediction of Equatorial Spread-F (ESF)

利用射线追踪技术建立了全球重力波模型，并用地基和卫星数据进行了验证。 该方法首先从国家气象局的每日分析和五天预报开始，以确定对流层结构（天气和中尺度系统、雷暴、飓风等）。这是已知的重力波源 重力波谱分配在确定的对流层源，然后从对流层传播通过中层大气和400公里的高度使用现有的线性射线跟踪数字代码。 对流层顶上方的背景大气由模型和现有数据表征。 最后的目的是评估重力波源触发赤道电离层的假设，这是赤道电离层中的一种现象，其特征是大离子密度耗尽或气泡，达到500公里或更高的高度。 这些电离层的不规则性会产生全球定位系统的无线电频率振荡，对空间气象界来说是一个突出的预报挑战。

A global gravity wave model using ray-tracing techniques is produced and verified with ground-based and satellite data.. The methodology begins by ingesting daily analysis and five-day forecasts from the National Weather Service to identify tropospheric structures (synoptic and mesoscale systems, thunderstorms, hurricanes, etc.) that are known to be gravity wave sources. Gravity wave spectra assigned at the identified tropospheric sources are then propagated from the troposphere through the middle atmosphere and to 400 km altitude using extant linear ray-tracing numerical codes. The background atmosphere above the tropopause is characterized by models and by available data. The over-arching purpose is to evaluate the hypothesis that gravity-wave sources as triggers of Equatorial Spread-F (ESF), a phenomenon in the equatorial ionosphere characterized by large ion density depletions, or bubbles, reaching altitudes of 500 km and higher. These ionospheric irregularities are known to produce Global Positioning System radio frequency scintillations, and stand as an outstanding forecasting challenge for the Space Weather community.