Collaborative Research on Risk Management in Supply Chains Using Market Information

国家科学基金会提案#0800628：利用市场信息在供应链中进行管理摘要：这笔赠款为利用市场信息开发供应链风险管理工具提供资金。初步研究表明，对汽车、服装、消费电子产品和家居等非必需品的需求与经济指标的变动有关。这些发现提供了一个机会，可以利用金融工具价格中嵌入的有关市场预期的信息来改进需求预测、生产计划和库存，从而降低风险。该项目旨在确定市场指标可用于规划供应链中的库存，这些库存不仅在静态意义上而且在动态意义上都是最优的，并测试公司价值是否以及如何与推动预测的经济指标相关。拟议的工作还包括审查价格信息对存货的影响，何时可以使用交易的市场工具的价格来预测产品的价格。该项目包括四个部分：预测、最优决策、套期保值和实证验证。如果成功，这项研究将有助于更好地理解经济因素与供应链需求和库存计划之间的关系。结果将为库存规划者提供一种机制，以使用随时可用的可靠市场信息进行库存计划、利润预测和套期保值。它们还提供了一种利用供应链模型开发和测试利润和风险方程的系统方法，并使企业能够以简单而联合的方式更好地了解采购成本以及价格和需求的波动如何影响风险，从而使企业能够在设计库存和生产系统时利用市场因素。

NSF Proposal # 0800628: Management in Supply Chains Using Market InformationAbstract: This grant provides funding for the development of risk management tools for supply chains using market information. Preliminary studies have shown that the demand for discretionary purchase items, such as automobiles, apparel, consumer electronics, and home furnishings is correlated with the movement of economic indicators. These findings present an opportunity to use information about market expectations embedded in the prices of financial instruments to improve demand forecasting, production planning, and inventory thus reducing risk. This project aims to establish that the market indicators can be used to plan inventories in supply chains that are optimal not just in a static sense but also dynamically, and to test whether and how the value of the firm is correlated with the economic indicators driving the forecasts. The proposed work also includes the examination of the effect of price information on inventories when the price of the product can be forecasted using prices of traded market instruments. The project consists of four parts: forecasting, optimal decision-making, hedging, and empirical validation. If successful, this research will lead to better understanding of the connections between economic factors with supply chain demand and inventory planning. The results will provide a mechanism to inventory planners to use readily available and reliable market information for inventory planning, profit forecasting, and hedging purposes. They also provide a systematic method for developing and testing profit and risk equations using models of supply chains, and allow the enterprises to better understand how the cost of procurement and the volatility of prices and demand affect risk in a simple and joint manner, and thus, the firms will be able to make use of market factors in designing inventory and production systems.