Collaborative Research on Risk Management in Supply Chains Using Market Information

NSF提案# 0800628：利用市场信息管理供应链摘要：该资助为利用市场信息开发供应链风险管理工具提供资金。初步研究表明，对汽车、服装、消费电子产品和家居用品等可自由支配购买物品的需求与经济指标的变动有关。这些发现为利用嵌入在金融工具价格中的市场预期信息来改进需求预测、生产计划和库存从而降低风险提供了机会。该项目旨在建立市场指标可用于规划供应链中的库存，不仅在静态意义上，而且在动态意义上也是最优的，并测试公司的价值是否以及如何与驱动预测的经济指标相关。建议的工作还包括审查价格信息对存货的影响，当产品的价格可以使用交易市场工具的价格预测。该项目包括四个部分：预测、最优决策、套期保值和实证验证。如果成功，本研究将有助于更好地理解经济因素与供应链需求和库存计划之间的联系。研究结果将为库存计划者提供一种机制，使他们能够利用现成的、可靠的市场信息进行库存计划、利润预测和套期保值。他们还提供了一个系统的方法来开发和测试使用供应链模型的利润和风险方程，并允许企业更好地了解采购成本和价格和需求的波动如何影响风险在一个简单的和联合的方式，因此，企业将能够利用市场因素设计库存和生产系统。

NSF Proposal # 0800628: Management in Supply Chains Using Market InformationAbstract: This grant provides funding for the development of risk management tools for supply chains using market information. Preliminary studies have shown that the demand for discretionary purchase items, such as automobiles, apparel, consumer electronics, and home furnishings is correlated with the movement of economic indicators. These findings present an opportunity to use information about market expectations embedded in the prices of financial instruments to improve demand forecasting, production planning, and inventory thus reducing risk. This project aims to establish that the market indicators can be used to plan inventories in supply chains that are optimal not just in a static sense but also dynamically, and to test whether and how the value of the firm is correlated with the economic indicators driving the forecasts. The proposed work also includes the examination of the effect of price information on inventories when the price of the product can be forecasted using prices of traded market instruments. The project consists of four parts: forecasting, optimal decision-making, hedging, and empirical validation. If successful, this research will lead to better understanding of the connections between economic factors with supply chain demand and inventory planning. The results will provide a mechanism to inventory planners to use readily available and reliable market information for inventory planning, profit forecasting, and hedging purposes. They also provide a systematic method for developing and testing profit and risk equations using models of supply chains, and allow the enterprises to better understand how the cost of procurement and the volatility of prices and demand affect risk in a simple and joint manner, and thus, the firms will be able to make use of market factors in designing inventory and production systems.