Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Government Concessions to Irregular Politics, Violence, and Insurgency

政府什么时候会因为叛乱暴力而做出让步？这些让步什么时候能结束暴力？本项目针对印度语言群体的自治运动来研究这些问题。许多少数民族语言团体在印度寻求自己的领土实体，这种运动催生了几个叛乱分子。这项研究表明，这些案例与通常的假设背道而驰，即当政府无法在消耗战中击败叛乱分子时，就会产生让步。相反，政府面临的关键战略困境是，一旦政府从冲突多发地区撤军，确定拥有足够资源维持和平的当地政治行为者。当政府认为叛乱领导人比当地其他政治强人更有权势时，就会做出让步。这些假设将通过使用印度所有语言群体的量化数据进行评估。这一数据集将在未来18个月内汇编完成。此外，该项目将利用对印度东北部正在进行的语言自治运动进行的为期3个月的实地研究。知识的重要性：对国内冲突的跨国研究成功地确定了一些增加针对国家的暴力风险的因素。这些研究特别有力地解释了往往以军事胜利告终的大规模叛乱。然而，许多高度不对称的内部冲突，包括那些对国际社会最重要的冲突，往往以谈判解决而告终。然而，在最近的经验内战文献中，没有提到对不对称暴力的让步。该项目还解决了关于叛乱的理论文献的局限性。对小型内战的分析通常基于这样一种假设，即这些都是消耗战。对叛乱的强制回应经常被倡导，理由是它们表明了政府的决心。然而，消耗战理论存在着已知的分析和经验问题，这个项目提供了对小型内战政治的另一种分析。成果和更广泛的影响：该项目将解决政策分析家和学者的关切。该研究还将聘请印度研究生担任研究助理，这将为当地学生创造新的机会，增加他们对政治学的实际参与。

When do governments make concessions as a result of insurgent violence? When do those concessions end the violence? This project examines these questions in regard to language-groups' autonomy movements in India. Numerous minority language groups have sought their own territorial entities within India and several insurgencies have grown out of such movements. This study shows that these cases defy the common assumption that concessions result when governments cannot out-last insurgents in a war of attrition. Rather, the key strategic dilemma for the government is to identify local political actors with sufficient resources to keep peace once the government withdraws its military presence from the conflict-prone area. Concessions occur when the government believes an insurgent leader is more powerful than other local political strongmen. The hypotheses will be evaluated through the use of quantitative data on all of India's language groups. This dataset will be compiled over the next 18 months. In addition, the project will draw on a 3-month field study of an ongoing linguistic autonomy movement in Northeast India. Intellectual importance: Cross-national study of internal conflict has succeeded in identifying a number of factors that increase the risk of violence against the state. These studies are particularly powerful for explaining large rebellions that tend to end in military victory by one side. Many internal conflicts, including those most important to the international community, that are highly asymmetric, however, tend to end in negotiated settlement. Yet, concessions to asymmetric violence have not been addressed in the recent empirical civil war literature. This project also addresses the limitations of the theoretical literature on insurgency. Analysis of small civil wars is generally based on the presumption that these are wars of attrition. Coercive responses to rebellion are often advocated on the grounds that they demonstrate the resolve of the government. There are known analytical and empirical problems with war of attrition theories, however, and this project offers an alternative analysis of the politics of small civil war. Outcomes and broader impacts: This project will address concerns of both policy analysts and academics. The study will also hire Indian graduate students as research assistants, which will create new opportunities for local students to increase their practical involvement in political science.