Forensic Animation: Hindsight Bias and Counterfactual Thinking in Judgments of Dynamically Unfolding Events

这个项目考察了证据展示技术的新进步如何影响法律决策。该项目特别关注计算机动画视频场景的使用，其中犯罪或事故在电影风格的场景中被重新创造。在全国各地的法庭上，这些“法医动画”被用来解释和澄清复杂的物证阵列。例如，在涉及杀人案或事故的审判中，从现场收集的证据可能被用来向电影再现实际发生的事情。法医动画确实具有说服力，因为它可能会创造出一种身临其境、亲眼目睹相关事件的生动感觉。然而，犯罪和事故再现总是包含内在的不确定性，视觉上令人印象深刻的动画可能会模糊这些不确定性。本研究项目使用实验社会认知心理学的实验室研究工具来了解法医动画的影响。此前在伊利诺伊大学首席调查员实验室进行的研究已经证实，法医动画可能会适得其反，因为它会增加事后诸葛亮。后见之明偏差是大多数人普遍存在的一种被广泛研究的认知错误，它是一种夸大过去对一次未来结果的可预测性的倾向。也就是说，在了解了一个结果的细节后，人们倾向于相信他们“早就知道了”。事后诸葛亮被认为是法律决策中一个特别令人恼火的问题，因为它可能会让陪审员受到不合理的惩罚。在涉及责任、疏忽或玩忽职守的案件中，美国法律的责任是仅根据被告在事故发生时知道的情况进行判断，而不是根据事后才能获得的信息。因此，理解后见之明偏差的认知基础可能会为提高法律决策的质量打开新的工具。目前的研究项目引入了最新的实验室技术来研究和缓解事后偏见，以解决对法医动画心理影响的担忧。通过考虑法庭环境中法医动画呈现的各个方面(例如重复次数、视觉观点、慢动作和正常重放速度)，这项研究可以表明在什么情况下法医动画会增加或减少事后偏见。反过来，这些研究结果可能会为美国法院适当使用法医动画提供新的指导方针。

This project examines how legal decision-making is affected by new advances in the technology of evidence presentation. The project focuses specifically on the use of computer animated video scenes, in which crimes or accidents are "re-created" in cinematic style scene. In courtrooms across the nation, these "forensic animations" are used to explain and clarify complicated arrays of physical evidence. For example, in trials involving homicide or accidents, evidence collected from the scene may be used to inform a cinematic re-creation of what actually happened. Forensic animation can indeed be persuasive, because it may create a vivid sense of actually being there and witnessing first-hand the events in question. However, crime and accident reconstruction always contain inherent uncertainty that visually impressive animation may obscure. This research project uses the laboratory research tools of experimental social-cognitive psychology to understand the impact of forensic animation.Prior research conducted in the Principal Investigator's laboratory at the University of Illinois has established that forensic animation can backfire, in that it can increase the hindsight bias. A widely-studied cognitive error common to most people, the hindsight bias is the tendency to exaggerate the past predictability of once-future outcomes. That is, after learning the details of an outcome, people tend to believe that they "knew it along." The hindsight bias has been singled out as a particularly vexing problem in legal decision-making, in that it can make jurors unreasonably punitive. In cases involving liability, negligence, or malpractice, the onus under American law is to judge only in terms of what the accused knew at the time of the accident, not on the basis of information available only in hindsight. Thus, an understanding of the cognitive basis of hindsight bias may unlock new tools for improving the quality of legal decision-making. The current research project brings the latest laboratory techniques for studying, as well as mitigating, the hindsight bias to address concerns regarding the psychological impact of forensic animation.By taking into account aspects of the presentation of forensic animation in the courtroom setting (for example, number of repetitions, visual point of view, slow-motion versus normal speed of replay), this research can show under what circumstances hindsight bias is increased or decreased by forensic animation. In turn, these research findings may suggest new guidelines for the appropriate use of forensic animation in American courts of law.