Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Studies

在过去几十年中，平流层的组成和环流发生了变化，因为臭氧层变薄，温室气体浓度增加。在今后几十年中，臭氧层预计将在温室气体浓度持续增加的背景下得到恢复。这些平流层的变化很重要，因为它们会影响对流层的天气和气候，特别是在高纬度地区。然而，我们对平流层作用的认识不足，给气候预测带来了不确定性，特别是因为我们不了解气候模式需要什么来模拟平流层变化对地表气候的实际影响。将用于增进对平流层-对流层耦合以及天气和气候如何受平流层变化影响的了解。该项目的一个具体目标是了解气候模型中需要什么，以便对平流层变化的影响以及准两年期振荡对地面气候和天气的影响进行逼真的模拟。准两年振荡是相当有规律的，通常可以提前几个月预测，因此与对流层的关系有可能改善长期天气和气候预报。这项工作将有助于我们了解平流层变化将如何影响对流层气候，并通过参与国际努力，促进对气候变化和大气成分变化的科学评估。具有更广泛影响的活动包括：教授中学气候变化课程;支持和培训博士后;公开数据供下载（例如，环形模指数）;该项目包括：让大学生参与研究项目;组织国际会议;编写一份关于平流层-对流层耦合的评论，将在《地球物理学评论》上发表。该项目将有助于世界气候研究方案的平流层过程及其在气候中的作用项目。

Over the past several decades, the composition and circulation of the stratosphere have changed, as the ozone layer has thinned and concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased. In the coming decades, the ozone layer is expected to recover against a background of continued increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. These stratospheric changes are important, because they can affect tropospheric weather and climate, especially at high latitudes. Our poor understanding, however, of the role of the stratosphere introduces uncertainty in climate projections, especially because we do not understand what is required of climate models to simulate realistic effects of stratospheric changes on surface climate.A wide variety of model results, together with observations, will be used to improve understanding of stratosphere-troposphere coupling and of how weather and climate are affected by stratospheric variability. A specific goal of this project is to gain an understanding of what is required in climate models to obtain realistic simulations of the effects of stratospheric changes, as well as effects of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), on surface climate and weather. The QBO is fairly regular, and is generally predictable many months in advance, so relationships with the troposphere have the potential to improve long-range weather and climate forecasts. This work will contribute to our understanding of how stratospheric change will affect tropospheric climate, and through involvement in international efforts, contribute to scientific assessments of climate change and changes in atmospheric composition.Activities with broader impacts include: teaching middle school classes on climate change; supporting and training a postdoc; making data publicly available for download (e.g., annular mode indices); involving undergraduate students in the research project; organizing international conferences; and preparing a review of stratosphere-troposphere coupling, to be published in Reviews of Geophysics. This project will contribute to the World Climate Research Programme's Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) project.