Planning for Drought Preparedness in the Watershed Context: A Risk-Based Decision Analysis

该项目旨在通过开发一个被广泛接受的干旱风险模型来解释气候变化，特别是气候变化预测中涉及的不确定性，从而产生持久的智力影响。研究活动将把气候变化预测和不确定性转化为防旱规划的有用信息，以解决一个具有重大社会意义的关键问题：可能的气候变化对干旱灾害意味着什么，当今社会应如何应对？今天，人们对干旱的担忧非常普遍。近年来，平均而言，严重干旱袭击了美国35%-40%的地区，造成了巨大的损失(许多超过10亿美元)。传统的干旱管理侧重于对干旱事件的应急响应和影响后分析。现在是更加重视备灾规划的时候了，也就是说，我们应该如何为未来可能更加频繁和严重的干旱做好准备？防备规划以减轻风险为基础，涉及战略措施，这些措施是长期的，通常需要资本投资。此外，从科学的角度来看，重要的是研究人员研究过去和未来的干旱事件与气候变化的关系。考虑到这些担忧，该项目寻求在未来可能因气候变化而加剧的不确定情况下，改进干旱风险评估和基础设施规划决策。该项目的具体目标是：1)估计未来在气候变化下可能出现的干旱风险；2)了解缓解干旱风险的长期战略措施和短期战术措施之间的互补关系；3)测试防旱实用技术的有效性；4)利用计算机生成的假想干旱事件，开展一次消防演习，也称为虚拟干旱演习(VDE)，以促进干旱风险管理教育。为了实现这些目标，该项目将结合气象、水文、工程和社会学研究，以便为制定战略计划提供有用的信息。这项研究将应用于伊利诺伊州坎卡基流域的联合地表水和地下水管理。该项目将解决作物生产损失和鱼类功能受损问题，以及在干旱事件期间这两个部门之间的权衡。通过提供关于干旱风险和缓解措施的基于科学的、实际相关的信息，该项目将通过解决问题和替代解决方案，帮助制定干旱管理政策审查和变化的议程，最终目标是减少干旱损害。此外，该项目将提供技术和教育支持，以解决社会公平问题，特别是干旱对代表性不足群体造成的损害。这将为政策制定者提供有关利益攸关方由此产生的得失的信息，以便将注意力转移到干旱期间可能在水分配中任职人数不足的群体。

This project aims at a lasting intellectual impact by developing a widely accepted model of drought risk that accounts for climate change, particularly the uncertainties involved in climate change prediction. The research activities will translate climate change predictions and uncertainties into useful information for drought preparedness planning in order to address a critical question of great societal importance: What does possible climate change imply for drought hazards, and how should society respond to it today? Today, concern over drought is widespread. On average, severe droughts hit 35-40 percent of the area of the United States in recent years and caused huge damages (many over $1 billion). Conventional drought management has focused on emergency response and post-impact analysis to drought events. It is time to place greater emphasis on preparedness planning, i.e., how should we prepare for future droughts that will probably be more frequent and severe? Preparedness planning is based upon risk mitigation and involves strategic measures, which are long-term and usually require capital investment. Moreover, from a scientific perspective, it is important for researchers to examine how drought events, in both the past and the future, are related to climate change. With such concerns in mind, this project seeks to improve drought risk assessment and decision making in infrastructure planning under an uncertain future that might be aggravated by climate change. Specific objectives of this project are to: 1) estimate the likely future drought risks under climate change, 2) understand the complementary relationships between long-term strategic and short-term tactical measures in drought risk mitigation, 3) test the effectiveness of practical technologies for drought preparedness, and 4) develop a ?fire drill?, also called a virtual drought exercise (VDE), using a hypothetical, computer-generated drought event to foster education for drought risk management. To achieve these objectives, the project will combine meteorological, hydrological, engineering and sociological research in order to provide information useful to craft strategic plans. The research will be applied to conjunctive surface and ground water management in the Kankakee Watershed in Illinois. It will address crop production loss and fish function damage, and the tradeoff between these two sectors during drought events.By providing scientifically-based, practically-relevant information on drought risk and mitigation measures, the project will help set the agenda for drought management policy examination and change by addressing problems and alternative solutions, with the ultimate goal of reducing drought damages. Furthermore, this project will provide technical and educational support for addressing issues of social equity, particularly the damage that drought causes for underrepresented groups. This will provide policy makers with information about the resulting gains and losses among stakeholders so that attention may be directed to groups that could possibly be under-represented in water allocation during drought.