HSD: Collaborative Research: Human-Related Factors Affecting Emerging Infectious Diseases

人类发展和人口增长的产物之一是全球范围的环境改变，供水和气候的变化就是明证。环境变化在生态系统的转变中也很明显，随之而来的是生物多样性丧失、生物入侵和新出现的疾病。这个跨学科研究项目旨在了解这些变化如何影响新发传染病（eid）的全球模式。这些疾病对美国和其他地方的人类健康和经济构成了重大威胁。它们每年造成数十万人死亡，给国家和全球经济造成数百亿美元的损失。尽管存在这些影响，并且在药物和疫苗开发上花费了数十亿美元，但在了解人为变化如何推动全球疾病出现风险方面，以及在制定针对这些威胁的预测和预防方法方面，进展甚微。研究者的主要假设是，社会经济和环境的变化，连同疾病特征，塑造了疾病分布和出现的全球模式。以往的研究表明，疾病的出现是由人口扩张、移民、土地利用变化、气候变化、农业和医疗技术的变化、对感染的易感性增加等因素驱动的。他们将通过整合全球规模的社会经济和环境数据集以及野生动物、人类和牲畜种群以及病原体分布的生物地理数据来检验这些假设。首先，他们将通过分析最近社会经济和环境数据变化的全球空间数据集与人畜共患、食源性、病媒传播和耐药eid的全球分布之间的联系，确定新发传染病的主要驱动因素。然后，他们将根据与人类有关的驱动因素的最近变化和预测趋势，开发当前和未来疾病出现风险的预测模型。他们将使用空间数学模型来确定疾病在地方范围内出现和大流行（全球）传播的可能性很大的地理区域。该项目将为15名本科生和研究生提供暑期研究项目和一名博士后助理的教育和培训机会。研究人员将通过网络数据门户向科学界提供他们的数据库。他们将出版同行评议的出版物，接受媒体采访，在会议上发言，提供与政策有关的简报，并与将环境卫生问题纳入其方案的发展中国家非政府组织领导人合作。他们将向公共卫生（世卫组织、疾病预防控制中心）、发展（开发计划署、国际发展研究中心）、贸易（粮农组织、世界动物卫生组织）和保护（世界自然保护联盟、生物多样性、教科文组织、环境规划署、环境保护署）等国家和政府间机构传播其结果。该项目的最终目标是利用其研究成果和产品来帮助决定如何最好地分配用于监测和控制全球公共卫生和发展中的疾病的稀缺资金和资源。由2008财年nsf人类与社会动力学（HSD）竞赛产生的奖项支持该项目。所有NSF理事会和办公室都参与了HSD竞赛和HSD奖项组合的协调管理。

One of the products of human development and population growth is global-scale alteration of the environment, as evidenced by changes in water supply and climate. Environmental change is also evident in the transformation of ecosystems, with accompanying biodiversity loss, biological invasions, and emerging diseases). This interdisciplinary research project aims to understand how these changes affect the global pattern of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). These diseases are a major threat to human health and the economy in the U.S. and elsewhere. They result in hundreds of thousands of human lives lost annually and tens of billions of dollars to national and global economies. Despite these impacts and billions of dollars spent on drug and vaccine development, there has been little progress in understanding how anthropogenic changes drive the risk of disease emergence globally, nor in developing predictive and preventive approaches to these threats. The investigator's main hypothesis is that socioeconomic and environmental changes, together with disease traits, shape global patterns of disease distribution and emergence. Previous studies have proposed that disease emergence is driven by human population expansion, migration, land-use change, climate change, changes to agriculture and medical technology, increased susceptibility to infection, and other factors. They will test these hypotheses by integrating global-scale socioeconomic and environmental data sets with biogeographic data on wildlife, human and livestock populations, and pathogen distributions. First, they will determine the major drivers of emerging infectious diseases by analyzing the linkages among global spatial datasets on recent changes in socioeconomic and environmental data and the global distribution of zoonotic, food-borne, vector-borne, and drug-resistant EIDs. They then will develop predictive models of current and future risk of disease emergence based on recent changes to and projected trends in human-related drivers. They will use spatial mathematical models to identify geographic regions where there is high potential for disease emergence at local scales and for pandemic (global) spread.This project will provide education and training opportunities for fifteen undergraduate and graduate students on summer research projects and a postdoctoral assistant. The investigators will make their databases available online to the scientific community through web data portals. They will produce peer-reviewed publications, engage in offer media interviews, make conference presentations, give policy-relevant briefings, and work with developing country non-governmental organization leaders who incorporate environmental health issues into their programs. They will disseminate their results to national and intergovernmental agencies of public health (WHO, CDC), development (UNDP, IDRC), trade (FAO, OIE), and conservation (IUCN, DIVERSITAS, UNESCO, UNEP, EPA). The project's ultimate goal is to have its research results and products used to help decide how best to allocate the scarce funds and resources available for surveillance and control of disease in global public health and development. An award resulting from the FY 2008 NSF-wide competition on Human and Social Dynamics (HSD) supports this project. All NSF directorates and offices are involved in the coordinated management of the HSD competition and the portfolio of HSD awards.