CAREER: Health Determinants and Research Design

该奖项是根据2009年美国复苏和再投资法案（公法111-5）资助的。决定人类健康的因素目前只知道一部分。即使已经确定了因果关系，这种关系的强度也经常存在很大的不确定性。需要对这些关系进行令人信服和精确的估计，以便为将改善人口健康的公共政策提供信息。这个项目将通过自然实验和准实验来提高对这些关系的理解。该项目的重点项目包括利用斋月研究孕产妇营养的影响，中国供暖补贴的影响研究污染对产前发育的影响，以及阿肯色州肥胖报告卡对肥胖和健康的影响。本CAREER建议认为，可反驳的研究假设可以在观察环境中进行评估，其中识别变化似乎是外生的。理想情况下，研究假设具有强大的含义，可以在可用的（即预先存在的）数据中进行评估。最令人信服的实证比较不需要复杂的计量经济学修正。相反，好的自然实验可以用最小的统计调整来确定治疗效果。在最干净的实验中，随机分配处理方法，只需要比较方法来估计因果关系。只要有可能，就应该模拟这个受控实验。在操作上，建议的方法寻求在观测环境中发现比较，其中未经调整的影响估计与回归调整的影响估计非常相似。更广泛的影响：该项目将通过在通常的经济学教学和研究界之外的合作产生重大影响。例如，研究人员正在与阿肯色州健康中心合作，以确定健康信息如何有助于减少儿童肥胖。国际合作也是不可或缺的，清华大学和北京大学的研究人员提议对中国淮河附近的空气污染进行研究就说明了这一点。此外，由于所涉及的健康问题至关重要，政策制定者（和大众媒体）可能会产生浓厚的兴趣。

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).What determines human health is known only in part. Even where causal pathways have been identified, great uncertainty frequently exists regarding the strength of the relationship. Compelling and precise estimates of these relationships are needed to inform public policies that will improve population health. This project would improve understanding of these relationships, using natural and quasi-experiments. The project highlights projects on the use of Ramadan to study the effects of maternal nutrition, the effects of heating subsidies in China to study the effects of pollution on prenatal development, and the impact of obesity report cards on obesity and health in Arkansas.This CAREER proposal argues that refutable research hypotheses can be evaluated in an observational setting where identifying variation is plausibly exogenous. Ideally, the research hypothesis has strong implications which can be evaluated in available (i.e. pre-existing) data. The most compelling empirical comparisons do not require sophisticated econometric fixes. Instead, good natural experiments can identify treatment effects with minimal statistical adjustment. The cleanest of experiments, where the treatment is randomly assigned, requires only the comparison of means to estimate causal effects. This controlled experiment should be emulated wherever possible. Operationally, the proposed approach seeks to unearth comparisons in an observational setting where unadjusted impact estimates are quite similar to regression-adjusted impact estimates.Broader Impact: The project will have substantial impact through collaborations outside the usual Economics teaching and research communities. For example, the investigator is working with the Arkansas Center for Health to determine how health information might help reduce childhood obesity. International collaboration is also integral, as illustrated by the proposed study of Chinese air pollution near the Huai river with researchers at Tsinghua and Beijing University. Also, because the health questions engaged are vitally important, substantial interest from policymakers (and the popular press) is likely.