Collaborative Research: The Effects of Terrorist Threats on Democratic Support in Liberal and Illiberal Democracies

国际恐怖主义的威胁是现代一个日益突出的固定现象。因此，公民越来越多地在恐怖主义威胁的阴影下进行政治评估和决策。这个项目考察了恐怖主义威胁在多大程度上影响了人们对民主的支持，以及这些影响在不同类型的民主（自由与非自由）和信息环境（有无民主价值观的提醒）中是如何变化的。非自由民主国家是指有正式的民主程序，但公民自由和其他民主条款没有得到广泛保护的民主国家。很少有研究专门关注一般的威胁背景，大多数研究没有专门考虑恐怖主义威胁，也没有研究在不同类型的民主和信息环境中产生的影响。调查人员预计，在缺乏民主价值观背景提醒的恐怖威胁面前，非自由民主国家和自由民主国家对民主的支持都会减少。然而，在不自由的环境中，这些转变预计会更加全面。当提出民主价值观的提醒时，自由社会的人预计将在抽象（即支持言论自由）和具体情况（即支持反恐战争中的抗议活动）方面对民主保持相对较高的支持。在不自由的社会里，对民主价值观的广泛支持不是根深蒂固的，也不会产生共鸣，这样的提醒不会有任何效果。为了评估这些期望，研究人员在八个国家进行了一系列的十个调查实验，这些国家既有自由民主国家（美国、英国、法国和西班牙），也有不自由的国家（阿尔巴尼亚、土耳其、玻利维亚和厄瓜多尔）。实验设计通过让参与者阅读一篇随机分配的报纸文章来改变恐怖主义威胁的显著性，这篇文章要么唤起恐怖主义威胁，要么降低恐怖主义威胁程度。此外，文章是否附有对民主价值观的提醒也各不相同。然后，调查对象被问及他们对民主价值观、程序和制度的支持程度。这种类型的实验对因果关系提供了最清晰的检验。有些调查是在互联网上进行的，有些是在实验室的电脑上进行的；这些并行方法的使用通过利用不同的主题池提高了结果的可靠性。该项目有几个更广泛的影响。鉴于国际恐怖主义阴谋和袭击在数量、规模和地理范围上都有所增长，了解恐怖主义威胁的阴影如何影响世界各地公民理解和参与政治的方式至关重要。就自由民主而言，提醒人们注意核心民主价值观会减少恐怖主义威胁对支持民主的负面影响，这一证据在公共政策上意味着，面对真正的威胁时，这种提醒可能会提供重要的平衡，有助于防止公民对民主实践失去信心。就不自由的民主国家而言，恐怖主义威胁对支持民主产生无条件负面影响的证据同时也发出警告，即公民可能撤回对民主的支持，这可能导致政治不稳定。然而，如果民主价值观的提醒即使在不自由的社会中也证明是有效的，这将是一个重要的教训。

The threat of international terrorism is a salient and growing fixture of modern times. As a result, citizens are increasingly making political evaluations and decisions under the specter of terrorist threat. This project examines the extent to which terrorist threats affect support for democracy and how these effects vary across type of democracy (liberal versus illiberal) and information environment (with or without reminders of democratic values). Illiberal democracies are those in which formal democratic procedures operate, but in which civil liberties and other democratic provisions are not extensively protected. Few studies have looked specifically at general threat contexts, most have not considered terrorist threats specifically, and none explore effects across different types of democratic and information environments. The investigators expect support for democracy to decrease in illiberal and liberal democracies in the presence of a terror threat absent contextual reminders of democratic values. However, these shifts are expected to be more comprehensive in illiberal settings. When reminders of democratic values are presented, those in liberal societies are expected to maintain relatively high support for democracy both in the abstract (i.e., support for free speech) and with respect to specific situations (i.e., support for protests in the war on terror). In illiberal societies, in which diffuse support for democratic values is not well-engrained and does not resonate, such reminders will have no effect. To assess these expectations, the investigators perform a series of ten survey experiments in eight countries representing both liberal democracies (the U.S., the U.K., France, and Spain) and illiberal ones (Albania, Turkey, Bolivia, and Ecuador). The experimental design varies the salience of the terrorist threat brought to mind by having participants read a randomly assigned newspaper article that either invokes or decreases the terrorist threat level. Also varied is whether or not the article is accompanied by a reminder of democratic values. The survey respondents are then queried about their level of support for democratic values, procedures, and institutions. This type of experiment provides the cleanest test of a cause-effect relationship. Some surveys are taken over the internet, others are taken on a computer in a lab; the use of these parallel approaches improves the reliability of findings by drawing on different subject pools. The project has several broader impacts. Given that international terrorist plots and attacks have grown in number, size, and geographic scope, it is critical to understand how the shadow of a terrorist threat affects the ways that citizens around the world understand and engage in politics. With respect to liberal democracies, evidence that reminders of core democratic values reduce the otherwise negative effects of terrorist threat on support for democracy carries the public policy implication that such reminders in the face of a real threat may provide important balance, helping to keep citizens from losing confidence in democratic practices. With respect to illiberal democracies, evidence for an unconditional negative effect of terrorist threat on support for democracy carries with it the warning that citizens may withdraw their support for democracy, which may lead to political instability. However, if reminders of democratic values do prove effective even in illiberal societies, this would be an important lesson.