Elite Communications and Racial Group Conflict in the 21st Century

在过去的几十年里，美国的种族和民族构成发生了巨大的变化。 在此期间，拉丁美洲人已经超过非洲裔美国人，成为该国最大的单一少数民族群体，他们越来越多地在西部和东北部传统门户城市以外定居。 非洲裔美国人在该国的比例没有增长得那么快，但作为总人口的一部分和登记选民的一部分，它继续增长。 鉴于种族和族裔格局的变化，本研究报告将探讨新世纪群体间冲突或合作的前景。 调查人员特别感兴趣的是，同种族的政治精英和利益集团领导人可以塑造非洲裔美国人，拉丁美洲人和白人对彼此的态度。 这项研究将探讨大众媒体报道的群体领导人的言论是否会加剧或减少群体间的敌意。 例如，如果政治领导人允许白人这样做，他们是否更有可能将自己的种族身份影响到他们的政策偏好？ 类似的呼吁对非裔美国人和拉丁美洲人也有效吗？ 此外，这项研究还将探讨这种呼吁是否更有效时，提供间接或编码的语言，而不是更明确的呼吁，以及是否政治呼吁，旨在分裂选民沿着种族线在美国南部更有效。 两个不同的实验将嵌入在一个具有全国代表性的互联网调查，以测试有关群体冲突的假设。 这项研究将测试，并可能修改，一些理论有关种族态度和身份政治领域的政治学，社会学，社会心理学和传播学。这项工作将探讨种族和族裔特性的偶然性，并设法查明在何种情况下它们可以对政策倾向和其他政治决定产生影响。 这项研究还具有超越推动社会科学文献的意义。 随着美国第44任总统巴拉克·奥巴马的就职典礼，许多政治观察家预测美国将进入一个新的“后种族”时代。 然而，可能的情况是，奥巴马的胜利，加上上述人口结构的变化，将使种族和民族在未来更加突出。 一些政治人物也可能有动机利用挥之不去的种族恐惧和怨恨。 如果学者们能够更好地理解这些诉求的可能性和局限性，那么社会将更有能力打击分裂性的种族言论。

In the past few decades, the racial and ethnic composition of the United States has undergone dramatic changes. During this period Latinos have eclipsed African Americans as the single largest ethnic minority group in the country and they have increasingly settled in large numbers outside of traditional gateway cities in the west and northeast. The percentage of African Americans in the country has not increased nearly as fast but it continues to grow as a share of the overall population and as a share of registered voters. In light of the changing racial and ethnic landscape, this study will address the prospects for inter-group conflict or cooperation in the new century. The investigators are particularly interested in the ways that co-ethnic political elites and interest group leaders can shape the attitudes that African Americans, Latinos, and Whites have about one another. The study will address whether statements by group leaders that are reported in the mass media can inflame or diminish inter-group hostility. For example, are Whites more likely to bring their racial identity to bear on their policy preferences if political leaders provide them with a license to do so? Are similar appeals also effective for African Americans and Latinos? Additionally, the study will explore whether appeals of this sort are more effective when delivered with indirect or coded language, rather than more explicit appeals and whether political appeals designed to cleave the electorate along racial lines are more effective in the American south. Two distinct experiments will be embedded in a nationally representative Internet survey to test hypotheses about group conflict. The study will test, and potentially modify, a number of theories concerning racial attitudes and identity politics in the fields of political science, sociology, social psychology, and communication studies. This work will explore the contingent nature of racial and ethnic identities and seek to identify the circumstances in which they can be brought to bear on policy preferences and other political decisions. This research also has implications beyond advancing the social science literature. With the inauguration of Barack Obama as the nation's 44th President, many political observers predicted that the country would enter a new, "post-racial," era. However, it may be the case that Obama's victory, coupled with the demographic changes outlined above, will make race and ethnicity more salient in the future. It is also possible that some political figures will have an incentive to capitalize on lingering racial fears and resentments. If scholars can generate an improved understanding of the possibilities and limitations of these appeals, then society will be better equipped to combat divisive racial rhetoric.