Agent-Based Modeling for Planning Emergency Response to Contamination Emergencies in Water Utilities

该研究项目将水利工程和社会科学学科结合起来，为水务经理在污染事件中面临的问题提供答案，“我需要知道什么？我可以使用什么工具来有效地减少污染事件造成的疾病和死亡？”大约90%的美国人从17万个公共供水设施中获得水。尽管这种基础设施无处不在，对公共卫生也很重要，但水系统应急管理的许多方面仍处于不发达阶段。供水系统中的意外污染物会侵蚀公众的信任，导致疾病和死亡，而恶意污染可能会造成更具破坏性的结果。随着污染事件的展开，水务公司的管理者需要在一个异常困难的环境中做出决策：他们收到的信息是不完整的，可能会有很大的错误；配水系统是动态的，极其复杂；消费者的反应是不确定的，会影响水系统的运行，使系统的动力学更加复杂和不确定。在整个事件过程中，消费者可能会根据官方通知（如烧水通知）或非正式（同行发起的）警告来减少用水量，消费者响应这些警报的行动将改变网络中的水力条件。因此，水务公司管理者的任何进一步决定都应考虑到污染物羽流的波动。该项目解决了供水威胁管理问题的几个未知方面。本研究将收集消费者决策过程和对保护行动建议的遵从率的经验模型所需的数据。消费者行为的经验模型和水分配网络的水力模拟将通过基于代理的建模（ABM）框架耦合。模拟框架将与优化算法相结合，以评估大量的应对方案，并制定有效的应急计划，考虑到人口与基础设施相互作用的不确定性和动态性。项目成果将用于为市政当局和自来水公司制订一项应对污染事件的议定书。虽然故意污染是对美国水务基础设施的现实威胁，但关于紧急预警、公众反应和水务管理效率之间复杂相互作用的研究文献很少。环境保护署已经发布了一些文件，为应对供水事件提供了一些指导，但只能推荐非常一般的行动，因为公用事业的最佳应对取决于系统的水力特性、污染物释放的特性以及公众、媒体和决策者的相互作用。这一框架将使某一特定的水务公司能够根据其特点确定应对一系列事件的备选办法，从而使公职人员和水务公司运营商做好准备，并为其提供装备，以更好地保护公众健康。当公用事业公司使用该框架时，将生成一组文档和流程图，这些文档和流程图可用于在污染事件展开时实时指导管理行动，并在收集信息时了解事件的特征。

This research project bridges the disciplines of hydraulic engineering and social science to provide answers to the questions a water utility manager faces in a contamination event, "What do I need to know and what tools can I use to effectively minimize sickness and deaths from this event?" Approximately 90 percent of the U.S. population receives water from one of 170,000 public water utilities. Despite the ubiquity of this infrastructure and its importance for public health, many aspects of emergency management for water systems remain at an undeveloped stage. Accidental contaminants in the water distribution system erode public trust and result in sickness and death, and malicious contamination may cause even more destructive results. As a contamination event unfolds, water utility managers need to make decisions in an extraordinarily difficult environment: information that they receive is incomplete and subject to great error; the water distribution system is dynamic and extremely complex; and consumer reactions are uncertain and affect the operation of the water system, making the dynamics of the system even more complex and uncertain. Throughout an event, consumers may reduce their water consumption based on official notices, such as boil water notices, or informal (peer-initiated) warnings, and the actions of consumers in response to these alerts will change hydraulic conditions in the network. Thus, any further decisions by water utility managers should take into account the fluctuations of the contaminant plume. The project addresses several unknown facets of the water distribution threat management problem. This research will collect data needed to empirically model consumers' decision-making process and compliance rates to protective action recommendations. Empirical models of consumer behavior and hydraulic simulation of water distribution networks will be coupled through an agent-based modeling (ABM) framework. The simulation framework will be coupled with optimization algorithms to evaluate large sets of response options and develop effective emergency response plans that account for uncertainty and the dynamic nature of population-infrastructure interactions. Project results will be used to develop a protocol for responding to contamination events for municipalities and water utilities.While intentional contamination is a realistic threat to U.S. water utility infrastructure, little research literature exists on the complex interactions of emergency warnings, public response, and management effectiveness for water utilities. The Environmental Protection Agency has published documents to provide some guidance for responding to a water distribution event, but can recommend only very generic actions, as the best response for a utility depends on the hydraulic characteristics of the system, the characteristics of the contaminant release, and the interactions of the public, media, and decision makers. This framework will allow a specific water utility to identify response options for a range of events based on its particular characteristics, thus preparing and equipping public officials and water utility operators to better protect public health. When a utility uses the framework, a set of documents and flowcharts will be produced that can later be used to guide management actions in real-time as a contaminant event unfolds and the characteristics of the event are understood as information is gathered.