Collaborative Rsearch: SAM'S Contribution to Increased Ocean Heat Content on the Continental Shelf of the Western Antarctic Peninsula

南大洋变暖的动力学及其与南极大陆架环流模式的相互作用所带来的南半球西风带的加强，绕极风之间盛行30和60 0 S，仍然不确定的几个方面。目前的全球气候模型（如气专委/第四次评估报告）将西风带的增强归因于对流层温室气体的人为增加沿着平流层臭氧水平的下降，这在季节性观测中表现为极地臭氧空洞。这一数值和分析项目旨在进一步评估海洋热含量对目前在阿蒙森海和别林斯高晋海终端冰流以及邻近的迅速变暖的南极西部半岛（WAP）观测到的加速变暖和冰下融化的贡献。使用帕尔默站的长期超温数据集（可追溯到1993年）提供了一个观测系列，其中部分涵盖了大气环流和气温最有可能发生变化的时间段。在与观测到的南半球环形模式趋势（较积极的趋势）相对应的对比风况下使用区域海洋数值模式（三维，完全动态），将有助于了解该大陆这些敏感大陆架区域的气候变化动态。冰川和冰盖融化对全球海平面上升的影响是政府间气候变化专门委员会最近评估中公认的不确定领域，并将是气候变化对本世纪社会的直接影响。

The dynamics of a warming Southern Ocean and its interactions with Antarctic continental shelf circulation patterns brought about by the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, circumpolar winds which prevail between 30 and 60 0 S, remains uncertain in several respects. Current global climate models (e.g. IPCC/AR4) attribute intensification of the westerlies to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases in the troposphere along with decreased levels of stratospheric ozone, seasonally observed as the polar ozone hole. Other dynamical oceanic processes may also be involved.This numerical and analysis project seeks to further evaluate the contribution of oceanic heat content to the accelerating warming and sub-glacial melting currently being observed in the terminal ice streams in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, and the adjacent rapidly warming Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). Use of the Palmer Station LTER data set, which extends back to 1993, provides a observational series which in part covers the time period where changes in atmospheric circulation and air temperatures are most likely to have taken place. Use of a regional oceanic numerical model (3-D, fully dynamic) under contrasting wind regimes corresponding to observed (more positive) trends in the Southern Annular Mode will shed light on the dynamics of climate change in these sensitive continental shelf regions of the continent. The impact of melting glaciers and ice sheets on global sea level rise is an acknowledged area of uncertainty in the most recent IPCC assessment, and would be a direct impact of climate change on society in this century.