Role of Ocean Heat in Climate Change on the Western Antarctic Peninsula

极地项目办公室、南极科学部、海洋与气候系统项目授予该奖项，以支持对南极半岛西部地区海洋热通量估算的改进，该估算基于现有的帕尔默长期生态观测站自1993年以来的年度网格海洋数据。其他可用的数据集也将被使用。近十年来，该地区是全球变暖速度最快的地区之一，冬季气温上升幅度约为全球平均水平的五倍。除了半岛附近和半岛上的生态紊乱外，气温上升还导致了大量的海冰覆盖面积减少和冰川净融化。大约一半的温度变化归因于气候模式的变化，因此另一半必然是海洋热输送的结果。温暖的上环极地深水侵入大陆架，导致热量逸出到大气中或融化海洋或冰川的冰。PI先前的研究表明，基于体参数标度的海洋热通量估计与基于时间热变化的海洋热通量估计之间存在高达30%的差异，后者更高。这项研究将利用现有数据更准确地量化海洋热通量和估计绝对不确定性。预计通过这次演习将能深入了解环极地上部深水向冰架的泛滥，以及海洋热量向大气的分配与冰融化之间的关系。更广泛的影响改进的海洋热通量估算是这一变化地区热平衡的一个重要组成部分，因此需要在了解驱动南极半岛地区快速气候变化的原因方面取得进展。这项研究将在一定程度上支持在物理海洋学领域设立一名女性博士后，在这个领域，研究生院以外的妇女人数特别少。

The Office of Polar Programs, Antarctic Science Division, Ocean & Climate Systems Program has made this award to support refinement of ocean heat flux estimates in the Western Antarctic Peninsula region based on existing annual Palmer Long Term Ecological Observatory gridded ocean data that extends back to 1993. Other data sets will also be used as available. This region has undergone among the most rapid warming on the planet in recent decade with a winter temperature rise about five times the global average. Rising temperatures have resulted in substantial sea ice cover loss and net glacial melt in addition to ecological disturbances in the vicinity of and on the peninsula. About half of this temperature change has been attributed to changed weather patterns, thus the other half must result from ocean heat transport. The incursion of warmer upper circum polar deep waters onto the shelf results in heat that can escape to the atmosphere or melt sea or glacial ice. Previous studies by the PI have shown up to 30% differences between ocean heat flux estimates based bulk parameter scaling versus temporal heat changes with the latter being higher. This study will use existing data to more accurately quantify ocean heat fluxes and estimates of the absolute uncertainties. It is expected that insights into the flooding of upper circum polar deep water onto the shelf and partitioning of ocean heat into the atmosphere versus ice melt will be gained by the exercise. Broader ImpactsThe improved ocean heat flux estimates constitute an important component of the heat balance in this changing region and so are required for progress in understanding what is driving the rapid climate change in the Antarctic Peninsula region. This study will partially support a female post doc in the domain of physical oceanography, a field in which women are particularly under represented beyond the graduate school level.