Role of Ocean Heat in Climate Change on the Western Antarctic Peninsula

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The Office of Polar Programs, Antarctic Science Division, Ocean & Climate Systems Program has made this award to support refinement of ocean heat flux estimates in the Western Antarctic Peninsula region based on existing annual Palmer Long Term Ecological Observatory gridded ocean data that extends back to 1993. Other data sets will also be used as available. This region has undergone among the most rapid warming on the planet in recent decade with a winter temperature rise about five times the global average. Rising temperatures have resulted in substantial sea ice cover loss and net glacial melt in addition to ecological disturbances in the vicinity of and on the peninsula. About half of this temperature change has been attributed to changed weather patterns, thus the other half must result from ocean heat transport. The incursion of warmer upper circum polar deep waters onto the shelf results in heat that can escape to the atmosphere or melt sea or glacial ice. Previous studies by the PI have shown up to 30% differences between ocean heat flux estimates based bulk parameter scaling versus temporal heat changes with the latter being higher. This study will use existing data to more accurately quantify ocean heat fluxes and estimates of the absolute uncertainties. It is expected that insights into the flooding of upper circum polar deep water onto the shelf and partitioning of ocean heat into the atmosphere versus ice melt will be gained by the exercise. Broader ImpactsThe improved ocean heat flux estimates constitute an important component of the heat balance in this changing region and so are required for progress in understanding what is driving the rapid climate change in the Antarctic Peninsula region. This study will partially support a female post doc in the domain of physical oceanography, a field in which women are particularly under represented beyond the graduate school level.