DMUU: Decision Center for a Desert City II: Urban Climate Adaptation

与气候变化相关的规模、范围和不确定性给科学家、决策者和公民带来了巨大的挑战。世界各地干旱地区的城市迫切需要从长远角度进行综合研究，为政策制定提供可靠的科学依据，以提高应对气候变化的适应能力。沙漠城市决策中心（DCDC）最初成立于2004年，是一个科学和政策界面的边界组织，在面对气候不确定性的情况下，为亚利桑那州凤凰城大都市区的水管理决策提供科学依据。这个合作小组将利用额外的资金扩大它与决策界已经广泛的互动，从而改善科学知识与行动之间的联系。研究人员将从三个角度发展不确定性下决策的基本新知识：气候不确定性、城市系统影响和适应决策。作为一个边界组织，DCDC的科学家们将利用社会科学原理来开发和测试一个更综合的决策支持过程，以便在这种复杂的环境中制定政策。他们将研究在气候变化的复杂动态城市系统中存在的相互关联的水、能源和土地利用决策。之前开发的DCDC WaterSim模型将被改进，以捕捉在面对气候不确定性时与气候变化决策相关的规模动态、经济反馈和分配效应。DCDC合作小组将与美国国家科学基金会资助的亚利桑那州中部凤凰城长期生态研究（CAP LTER）项目密切合作，测量、监测和模拟生态系统服务、社会公平和经济福祉之间的权衡。DCDC的研究将产生关于个人和社会对气候变化的反应的新知识，以及将科学和决策联系起来以改善结果的最佳实践。关于城市系统动力学的新知识将为降低城市气候敏感性的适应战略提供更好的科学依据，而关于面对长期环境风险的有效决策方法的新知识将有助于制定制定和实施这些战略的方法。DCDC的研究将把当前和未来气候条件下的水供需知识与社会科学的决策研究联系起来，从而为科学家、政策制定者和其他利益相关者合作、创造和评估应对气候变化的方法提供更好的基础。DCDC教育项目将帮助教育和培训下一代学者，使他们能够轻松地在科学和政策领域之间穿梭，以提高社会适应气候变化的能力。该合作小组项目由美国国家科学基金会社会、行为和经济科学理事会通过其不确定决策制定（DMUU）竞赛提供支持。

The scale, scope, and uncertainties associated with climate change pose formidable challenges for scientists, policy makers, and citizens. Cities in arid locales around the world urgently need integrative research with a long-term perspective to provide a sound scientific basis for policy making to improve adaptive capacity in the face of climate change. The Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC), which initially was established in 2004, is a boundary organization at the interface of science and policy that advances the scientific basis for water management decision making in the face of climatic uncertainty in the Phoenix metropolitan area of Arizona. This collaborative group will use additional funding to expand its already extensive interaction with the policy-making community, thus improving links between scientific knowledge and action. The investigators will develop fundamental new knowledge about decision making under uncertainty from three perspectives: climatic uncertainties, urban-system impacts, and adaptation decisions. As a boundary organization, DCDC scientists will use social science principles to develop and test a more integrated decision-support process for policy making in this complex environment. They will examine the interconnected water, energy, and land-use decisions that exist in a complex dynamic urban system under climate change. The previously developed DCDC WaterSim model will be refined to capture the scale dynamics, economic feedbacks, and distributional effects associated with climate-change decisions in the face of climate uncertainty. The DCDC collaborative group will work closely with the NSF-funded Central Arizona Phoenix Long Term Ecological Research (CAP LTER) project to measure, monitor, and model tradeoffs among ecosystem services, social equity, and economic well-being. DCDC research will produce new knowledge about individual and societal responses to climate change and the best practices for linking science and decision making to improve outcomes. New knowledge about urban-system dynamics will provide a better scientific basis for adaptation strategies to make cities less climate-sensitive, while new knowledge about effective approaches to decision making in the face of long-term environmental risk will aid in formulating approaches to developing and implementing these strategies. DCDC research will link knowledge about water supply and demand under current and future climate conditions with social science research on decision making, thereby providing an improved basis for scientists, policy makers, and other stakeholders to collaborate and to create and evaluate approaches to adaption in the face of climate change. The DCDC educational program will help educate and train the next generation of scholars who can move easily between the worlds of science and policy to improve society's ability to adapt to a changing climate. This collaborative group project is supported by the NSF Directorate for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences through its Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) competition.