Collaborative Proposal; Environment, Society, and Economy: Modeling New Behaviors Emerging from Coupling Physical Coastal Processes and Coastal Economies

在许多环境中，人类活动对景观变化的影响越来越大，直接通过建筑和农业活动，间接通过改变塑造景观的自然过程。反过来，塑造景观的过程影响人类，往往造成自然灾害。在沿海环境中，这种双向互动包括威胁沿海社区的海岸侵蚀和影响周围海岸线演变的海岸线稳定努力。先前的数值模拟表明，局部海岸线稳定的努力，如通过添加沙子来滋养海滩，可以改变海岸线侵蚀率，即使是在海岸线的遥远部分。因此，选择稳定其海岸线的沿海社区无意中影响了其他社区，因此沿海社区的经济和管理是联系在一起的。本研究将使用数值模拟来解决在不同决策制度下出现的各种耦合的环境和经济模式。数值模拟的经济成分基于财产价值和海滩宽度之间的经验关系，决定了海滩补充策略，使单个社区的净收益最大化。将这个模型与海岸线变化模型相结合，揭示了社区之间不知不觉地相互作用的意想不到的方式，以及诱导一些社区承担比其他社区更多的海岸线稳定工作的反馈。相比之下，另一种不同的经济模型方法将更全面地分析什么样的海滩补充模式将使一段海岸线的净效益最大化。本项目将研究海岸线变化的不同模式以及这些方法在不同情景下产生的经济效益：1)海平面上升；2)风暴气候变化；3)海岸线物理经济属性；4)公共池砂资源的减少和相应的海滩补充价格的增加。沿海环境的变化不再能够通过孤立地考虑物理或经济过程来理解；这项研究为理解发达海岸线的动态提供了必要的步骤。在各种可能的未来（考虑到气候变化和包括沙资源在内的经济驱动因素的不确定性），是什么导致海岸线侵蚀的模式和经济影响。计算机模型实验的结果测试了海岸线稳定的协调规划如何增加净财富，这不仅增加了关于人类/景观耦合系统如何工作的基本知识，而且还可能导致沿海管理策略的改进。

Human activities increasingly influence landscape change in many environments, both directly through construction and agricultural activities and indirectly through changes to the natural processes that shape landscapes. In turn, the processes that shape landscapes affect humans, often posing natural hazards. In coastal environments these two-way interactions involve coastal erosion, which threatens coastal communities, and shoreline-stabilization efforts, which affect the evolution of the surrounding coastline. Previous numerical modeling has shown that localized shoreline stabilization efforts, such as nourishing beaches by adding sand, can alter shoreline erosion rates even in distant parts of a coastline. Thus, a coastal community that chooses to stabilize its shoreline inadvertently affects other communities, so that the economies and management of coastal communities are linked. This research will use numerical modeling to address the kinds of coupled environmental and economic patterns that emerge under different decision-making regimes. An economic component to the numerical modeling, based on an empirical relationship between property values and beach width, determines the beach replenishment strategy that optimizes the net benefits to an individual community. Coupling this model to a coastline-change model reveals the unexpected ways that communities unwittingly interact with one another, and the feedbacks that induce some communities to shoulder more of the shoreline stabilization effort than others. In contrast, a different economic-model approach will analyze what pattern of beach replenishment would maximize the net benefits of a stretch of coastline more holistically. This project will investigate the different patterns of coastline change and economic benefits these approaches would produce under different scenarios for: 1) sea-level rise; 2) changing storm climate; 3) coastline physical and economic attributes; and 4) diminishing common-pool sand resources and the associated increase in the price of beach replenishment. Changes in coastal environments can no longer be understood by considering either physical or economic processes in isolation; this research provides a necessary step toward understanding the dynamics of developed coastlines?what causes the patterns of shoreline erosion and economic impacts under various possible futures (given uncertainties in climate change and economic driving factors including sand resources). The results of computer-model experiments testing how coordinated planning for shoreline stabilization could increase net wealth will not only increase basic knowledge about how coupled human/landscape systems work, but it could lead to improvements in coastal management strategies.