Investment: Theory, Estimates, and Public Policy

项目概述投资：理论、估计和公共政策本项目将分析投资支出的决定因素。它将量化几个关键决定因素，并研究它们如何在理论和实践中影响投资。该提案有两个相关的研究方向。第一个研究部分是按分类对投资进行的实证分析。第二部分开发和评估投资的结构模型。这两个研究部分是相辅相成的。实证结果被用来告知、检验和估计结构模型的参数。反过来，结构性模型为近期和未来投资政策的影响提供了重要的见解。项目的第一部分是对投资的实证分析。这项研究确立了投资理论应该匹配的关键实证事实。它还评估了几个现有理论的经验成功。具体地说，使用一组特定类型的投资数据，研究了四个突出的实证问题：(1)税前和税后投资价格的周期性；(2)不确定性在投资支出中的作用；(3)投资对税收补贴的反应；(4)汽车生产和价格对2009年消费者援助回收和节省法案(Consumer Aid To Reccle And Saving Act)的反应，也被称为“旧车换现金”。使用的主要数据集是BEA基本投资明细表、最近可用的经济不确定性衡量标准，以及一套经过更新和修订的特定类型的投资税补贴。提案的第二部分提出了一个投资的结构性均衡模型。该理论框架建立在以前的研究基础上，这些研究的特点是在微观层面上有固定的调整成本。该模型通过引入一种新的投资时机摩擦来补充这一研究，这一摩擦在以前的工作中没有出现。时机摩擦使得企业层面的异质性对均衡投资动态有很大影响。这是对固定成本和企业水平异质性研究的一个重要扩展，因为这种异质性的重要影响在早期的模型中并不存在。因此，拟议的框架将为分析投资政策提供更好的指南。时机摩擦的程度将根据特定类型的投资数据进行估计。提案第一部分的实证工作将提供几个参数，以评估理论模型的适合性，并对具体政策变化的影响进行估计。该项目将开发一种现代投资模式，其中包括关键的摩擦，这些摩擦意味着重要的公司层面的异质性。虽然该模型包含了许多复杂的现代特征，但它在分析上也很容易处理，并产生准确的可测试预测。因此，这项研究将使现代投资模型能够以有意义的方式面对数据，并用于评估具体的政策。这项研究将为旨在通过刺激投资来影响整体经济活动或促进投资以促进经济增长的政府政策提供理论和实证指导。此外，这一分析的结果将有助于研究商业周期，因为它揭示了各种冲击如何影响投资活动。

Project SummaryInvestment: Theory, Estimates, and Public PolicyThis project will analyze the determinants of investment spending. It will quantify several key determinants and study how they affect investment both in theory and in practice. The proposal features two related lines of research. The first research component is an empirical analysis of investment at a disaggregated level. The second component develops and estimates a structural model of investment. The two research components are complementary. The empirical results are used to inform, test, and estimate parameters of the structural model. In turn, the structural model provides important insights into the effects of recent and future investment policies. The first part of the project presents an empirical analysis of investment. This research establishes key empirical facts that investment theories should match. It also evaluates the empirical success of several existing theories. Specifically, using a panel of type-specific investment data, four prominent empirical issues are studied: (1) the cyclicality of pre-tax and after-tax investment prices; (2) the role of uncertainty in investment spending; (3) the response of investment to tax subsidies and (4) the response of automobile production and prices to the Consumer Assistance to Recycle and Save Act of 2009, also known as "cash for clunkers.?" The primary data sets used are the BEA underlying detail tables for investment, recently available measures of economic uncertainty, and an updated, revised set of type-specific investment tax subsidies.The second part of the proposal presents a structural equilibrium model of investment. The theoretical framework builds on previous studies which feature fixed adjustment costs at the microlevel. The model adds to this research by introducing a new investment timing friction not featured in earlier work. The timing friction allows firm-level heterogeneity to have a substantial influence on equilibrium investment dynamics. This is a ignificant extension of the research on fixed costs and firm-level heterogeneity since important effects of such heterogeneity are not present in earlier models. As a result, the proposed framework will provide a better guide to analyzing investment policy. The magnitude of the timing friction will be estimated with type-specific investment data. The empirical work in the first part of the proposal will provide several parameters to assess the fit of the theoretical model and to develop estimates of the effects of specific policy changes.Summary of intellectual merit. The project will develop a modern model of investment that incorporates key frictions that imply important firm-level heterogeneity. While the model incorporates many complex modern features, it is also analytically tractable and yields sharp testable predictions. Hence, this research will allow modern investment models to confront the data in a meaningful way and to be used to evaluate specific policies.Summary of broader implications. This research will provide both theoretical and empirical guidance for government policies designed either to affect overall economic activity by stimulating investment or to promote investment to increase economic growth. Additionally, the results of this analysis will be valuable to studying business cycles by shedding light on how various shocks affect investment activity.