Multi-Scale Modeling of Interdependent Critical Infrastructure System Performance During Hurricanes

水和电力网络等关键基础设施系统提供基本服务，这些服务是美国经济繁荣、安全和公共卫生的基础。这些复杂、相互依存的系统在飓风期间容易发生故障。改进这些系统在飓风登陆后满足社会需求的能力建模，将大大提高我们管理这些系统失效风险的能力。然而，在飓风多发地区的关键基础设施系统的风险分析领域，既有概念性质的基本研究需要，也有计算性质的研究需要。从概念上讲，我们还没有能够准确预测飓风期间大规模相互依存的基础设施系统性能的建模框架，这是准确评估和管理风险的必要起点。在计算上，许多旨在对大城市地区规模的基础设施性能进行建模的可用工具需要在大型计算机集群上运行很长时间，这限制了它们对实际基础设施规划和管理的有用性。统计方法和基于图形处理单元(显卡)的计算的最新进展推动能够解决飓风多发地区相互依存的基础设施系统风险分析的当前方法所固有的概念和计算限制的进展。这个项目的重点是为相互依赖的基础设施系统开发准确的性能和风险建模方法，这些方法对于基础设施管理人员来说是实用的。虽然该项目的重点是水电耦合系统，但这些进展将得到更广泛的应用。该项目将使相互依存的基础设施系统的风险分析更加准确和快速，使极其有限的公共基础设施资金能够更有效地使用，并有助于在灾害期间更好地保护经济和公众健康。在该项目中开发的模型将适用于配备现有高端显卡的台式计算机，从而极大地增强基础设施管理人员在其现有计算机硬件上运行这些模型的能力。此外，该项目将深入了解导致相互依赖的基础设施系统在飓风期间具有更强弹性的因素，帮助工程师和公用事业系统经理更好地了解如何加强他们的系统。在研究工作的同时，这个项目将致力于吸引传统上在工程专业中代表性较低的学生将工程学作为一种职业。这将通过在多个教育级别进行外联来实现。

Critical infrastructure systems such as water and electric power networks provide essential services that underlie the economic prosperity, security, and public health of the U.S. These complex, interdependent systems are prone to failure during hurricanes. Improved modeling of the ability of these systems to meet the needs of society after a hurricane makes landfall would substantially improve our ability to manage the risk of these systems failing. However, there are fundamental research needs of both conceptual and computational natures in the area of risk analysis for critical infrastructure systems in hurricane-prone areas. Conceptually, we do not yet have modeling frameworks that allow for accurate prediction of the performance of large-scale interdependent infrastructure systems during hurricanes, a necessary starting point for accurate risk assessment and management. Computationally, many of the available tools that aim to model infrastructure performance at the scale of large metropolitan areas require long run times on large computer clusters, limiting their usefulness for practical infrastructure planning and management. Recent advances in both statistical methods and computing based on graphical processing units (?graphics cards?) enable advances that can address both the conceptual and computational limitations inherent in current approaches for risk analysis for interdependent infrastructure systems in hurricane-prone areas. The focus of this project is on developing methods for accurate performance and risk modeling for interdependent infrastructure systems, methods that are practical for infrastructure managers to use. While the focus of this project is on coupled water and power systems, the advances will have application much more broadly.This project will enable significantly more accurate and rapid risk analysis for interdependent infrastructure systems, allowing highly limited public infrastructure funds to be spent more efficiently and helping to better protect economic and public health during disasters. The models developed in this project will be practical for use on desktop computers with existing higher-end graphics cards, greatly enhancing the ability of infrastructure managers to run these models on their existing computer hardware. In addition, this project will yield insights into the factors that lead interdependent infrastructure systems to be more resilient during a hurricane, helping engineers and utility system managers better understand how to strengthen their systems. In parallel with the research efforts, this project will aim to interest students traditionally underrepresented in engineering programs in pursuing engineering as a career. This will be done through outreach at multiple educational levels.