GOALI: Probabilistic Geomechanical Analysis in the Exploitation of Unconventional Resources

国家同时面临着能源需求增加和常规油气资源枯竭的挑战。预计本提案中描述的先进研究将导致可持续、更安全、更环保、更高效的非常规石油资源开采技术。这些特质对21世纪美国的经济、环境和安全至关重要。本研究计划将随机场理论与有限元方法（random finite element Method RFEM）相结合，开发并应用于非常规石油资源开采行业中遇到的独特岩土条件。壳牌的工业合作伙伴开发了先进的确定性建模技术，用于稠油和油页岩等非常规石油资源的勘探和生产。该提案使壳牌能够与科罗拉多矿业学院的学术合作者合作，将先进的基于概率的数值模拟方法纳入其建模能力。此外，工业伙伴提供的实际应用和数据将大大提高主要在学术环境中开发的软件的有用性。该合作项目将在非常规石油资源开采技术的设计和实施方面加强产学研的联系。其目的是为非常规石油资源开采设定一个高行业标准，由于重要的环境影响，这无疑将受到公众的密切关注。预计这项研究将导致公众，包括工业合作伙伴的工程师，对风险和可靠性方法的重要性的理解和认识。在这项研究中取得的进展也将导致对风险和可靠性方法的更好理解和实施更常规的岩土工程设计。

The Nation faces simultaneous challenges from increasing demand for energy coupled with depletion of conventional oil and gas resources. It is expected that the advanced research described in this proposal will lead to sustainable, safer, environmentally clean and more efficient unconventional oil resource recovery techniques. These attributes will be critical to the economy, environment, and security of the United States in the 21st century.This research proposal brings together random field theory and finite element methods, also known as the Random Finite Element Method RFEM, which will be developed and applied to the unique geotechnical conditions encountered in the unconventional oil resource recovery industry. The industrial partners at Shell have developed advanced deterministic modeling technologies for exploration and production of unconventional oil resources such as heavy oils and oil shale. This proposal enables Shell to work with academic collaborators at the Colorado School of Mines to include advanced probabilistic based numerical simulation methods into their modeling capabilities. In addition, the practical applications and data made available by the industrial partners will greatly enhance the usefulness of software developed predominantly in an academic environment.This collaborative project will improve industry-university research linkage in the design and implementation of unconventional oil resource recovery techniques. The aim is to set a high industry standard for unconventional oil resources extraction which will undoubtedly be under close public scrutiny due to the important environmental implications. It is also anticipated that this research will lead to an understanding and recognition of the importance of risk and reliability methodologies among the public, including engineers of the industrial partner.Developments made in this research will also lead to improved understanding and implementation of risk and reliability methodologies into more routine geotechnical design.