Development of a Quantitative Model for Measuring Regional Economic Resilience to Hurricanes

本研究旨在建立一个量化模型来衡量区域经济对飓风灾害的恢复能力。复原力被描述为一个动态和复杂的过程，需要在多个时间尺度上衡量相关指标，包括基础设施重建、减灾活动、公共灾害支出、当地就业、住房许可、零售销售和个人收入。通过整合风暴的大气特性，一个地区的物理特性？考虑到建筑环境和经济特征，该模型能够在多个时间尺度上预测当地经济的恢复速度。确定关键的恢复力指标，并根据从过去事件收集的数据估计其影响。由于这些数据是可量化和可验证的，我们能够产生一个具有增强可靠性和鲁棒性的模型。本研究的两个主要目标是：1)利用遥感影像档案模拟建筑环境恢复的进展；2)利用都市统计区级的时间序列数据建立经济复苏速度模型。我们正在探索一个潜在的变革性概念，在经济和物理层面上建立一个定量模型。因此，在评估飓风的直接破坏和了解其更广泛和持久的影响之间的关键知识差距可以弥合。研究结果将为补充和加强现有的城市改造和灾后恢复理论提供进一步的数值证据。这项研究的成功有可能通过更好的公共政策和投资，极大地改善飓风易发地区社区的长期经济福祉。结果和方法将作为研究生课程的一部分，以及通过网站和其他学术渠道在德克萨斯理工大学和东卡罗莱纳大学进行介绍。该项目将支持两个合作机构的风能科学与工程和海岸资源管理博士生。这些活动将为研究生和本科生提供宝贵的培训机会，培养以灾害为重点的多学科研究的下一代专家，并有助于建立减轻灾害的知识库。它还可以促进根本性的变革，帮助社区在面对未来的灾害时在物质、社会和经济方面变得更有弹性。

This research is aimed at developing a quantitative model for measuring regional economic resilience to hurricane hazards. Resilience, being described as a dynamic and complex process, requires measurements at multiple timescales of relevant indicators that include infrastructure reconstruction, mitigation activities, public disaster expenditures, local employment, housing permits, retail sales, and personal income. By integrating atmospheric properties of storms, physical attributes of a region?s built environment and economic characteristics, the proposed model is capable of forecasting the rate of recovery in a local economy at multiple timescales. Key resilience indicators are identified and their effects are estimated with data collected from past events. Because these data are quantifiable and verifiable, we are able to produce a model with enhanced reliability and robustness. Two primary objectives are pursued: 1) model the progress in built environment recovery using remotely sensed image archives; 2) model the rate of economic recovery using time-series data at the Metropolitan Statistical Area level. We are exploring a potentially transformative concept by developing a quantitative model in both economic and physical dimensions of recovery. As the result, a critical knowledge gap between assessing the immediate damage of hurricanes and understanding its broader and lasting impacts could be bridged. The result will afford further numerical evidence for both complementing and strengthening existing theories in urban redevelopment and disaster recovery.The success of this research has the potential to greatly improve the long term economic well-being of communities in hurricane-prone regions with better designed public policies and investment. The outcomes and methodologies will be introduced as part of graduate curriculum as well as through websites and other academic outlets at both Texas Tech and East Carolina Universities. The project will support doctoral students in Wind Science and Engineering and Coastal Resource Management at two collaborating institutions. These activities will provide valuable training opportunities for graduate and undergraduate students, nurture the next generation of experts in multidisciplinary disaster-focused research, and contribute to the knowledgebase of hazard mitigation. It could also catalyze fundamental changes to help communities become more physically, socially and economically resilient in facing future disasters.