Cross-immunity and geographical invasion in sylvatic T. cruzi transmission

该项目为克氏锥虫（Trypanosoma cruzi）的几个森林传播周期开发了详细的空间明确模型，克氏锥虫导致恰加斯病，在美国和北方墨西哥相互作用，在人口水平上研究得很少。 寄生虫株、宿主和媒介物种（主要是浣熊、负鼠和林鼠，以及昆虫媒介Triatoma sanguisuga和gerstaeckeri）的差异及其特征使每个周期具有不同的动态，但媒介传播将它们结合在一起。 气候变化，无论是长期的还是季节性的，都通过调节病媒行为来影响这些动态，从而产生了非本土菌株地理入侵的可能性，而在美国观察到的菌株之间的交叉免疫，再加上每个周期特有的寄生虫适应性，在菌株之间建立了竞争，可能允许本地的该项目开发了详细的小规模模型（基于代理以及分析），以研究当地的影响，（像扩散）影响全球动力学，详细的大规模模型来研究结果的全球动力学，以经典集合种群模型（具有普通和随机微分方程的动力系统）为基线，从中不仅可以导出更详细的模型，而且可以导出定性分析和概率结果，这些结果可以用于预测和解释数值结果。 该项目的四个结构阶段在地方和区域尺度上以低和高空间分辨率开发相应的模型，而覆盖所有模型框架的是气候对病媒摄食，成熟，流动性和随后的感染率的影响的研究。 该项目的数学重点是开发一种多层次的建模方法，其中局部和全局因素相互影响，而生物学中心则需要了解T. cruzi在响应当地的矢量行为，在矢量行为的变化驱动的温度和湿度的差异，传播周期之间的传播所造成的传播。 这项研究不仅回答了与这些模型和生物系统相关的具体问题，而且在新出现/重新出现的病媒传播疾病、多尺度建模和生态系统对气候变化的响应等领域提供了重要的案例研究。这项工作涉及与格鲁吉亚（美国）、法国和墨西哥的专业知识，在载体种群生物学，进化适应，土地利用和公共卫生问题，以及建模的各个方面，以及与本科生和研究生和博士后研究员谁将获得跨学科的合作研究和指导技能的培训，而工作的项目。

This project develops detailed, spatially explicit models for the several sylvatic transmission cycles of Trypanosoma cruzi, which causes Chagas' disease, interacting in the U.S. and northern Mexico, which have been little studied at the population level. Differences in parasite strain, host and vector species (primarily raccoons, opossums, and woodrats, and the insect vectors Triatoma sanguisuga and gerstaeckeri), and their characteristics give each cycle distinct dynamics, but vector dispersal couples them together. Climate changes, both long-term and seasonal, affect these dynamics by regulating vector behavior, creating a potential for geographical invasion of non-native strains, while observed cross-immunity between strains in the U.S., together with parasite adaptations particular to each cycle, set up a competition between strains that may allow native (enzootic) strains to form a barrier to such invasion.The project develops detailed small-scale models (agent-based as well as analytical) to study how local effects (like dispersal) affect global dynamics, detailed large-scale models to study the result-ing global dynamics, with classical metapopulation models (dynamical systems with both ordinary and stochastic differential equations) as a baseline from which to derive not only the more detailed models but also qualitative analytical and probabilistic results which can be used to anticipate and interpret numerical results. Four structural phases of the project develop corresponding models at low and high spatial resolution on local and regional scales, while overlaid across all model frameworks is the study of climate effects on vector feeding, maturation, mobility, and subsequent infection rates. The mathematical focus of the project is the development of a multi-level modeling approach in which local and global factors influence each other, while the biology centers around the need to understand the complex interactions between the evolutionary adaptations to different transmission avenues (stercorarian, vertical and oral) made by T. cruzi in response to local vector behavior, changes in vector behavior driven by differences in temperature and humidity, and the communications between transmission cycles caused by dispersal. The research not only answers the specific questions posed relative to these models and biological systems, but also provides an important case study in the areas of emerging/re-emerging vector-borne diseases, multiscale modeling, and ecosystem responses to climatic change.This work involves a multidisciplinary and international collaboration with cooperating researchers in Georgia (U.S.), France and Mexico with expertise in vector population biology, evolutionary adaptations, land use and public health issues, and various aspects of modeling, as well as with undergraduate and graduate students and a postdoctorate researcher who will gain training in interdisciplinary collaborative research and mentoring skills while working on the project.