Collaborative research: Integrating genetically informed models of germination and flowering to predict life history responses to changing climate.

物候学——生物事件的季节性时序——是对气候变化最重要的生物反应之一。对于一年生植物来说，种子发芽和开花的季节是至关重要的。发芽和开花时间相互作用决定生长、开花和结实率。因此，一个包括这些事件及其相互作用的综合生命周期模型对于预测自然条件下的每个物候转变、整个生命周期和环境扰动影响的持久性是必要的。本项目将利用拟南芥开花和发芽分子遗传基础的丰富遗传信息，建立综合生活史模型，预测不同地理范围和不同气候情景下的基因型特异性表现。这些预测将在季节对比的田间地点使用不同的萌发和开花等位基因组合的独特遗传物质进行检验。这项工作直接关系到预测植物对气候变化的反应。它的目的是预测在各种气候条件下的发芽时间和同步，这对农业环境有直接的兴趣。该模型还将预测发芽时间的变化如何影响生殖时间和产量，这对于预测作物物种及其生长的杂草的反应非常重要。最后，它使用含有候选基因位点的基因型进行休眠操作，以评估这些基因如何对变化的气候做出反应。

Phenology - the seasonal timing of biological events - is one of the most important organismal responses to climate change. For annual plant species, the seasonal timing of seed germination and flowering is crucial. Germination and flowering time interact to determine patterns of growth, flowering and seed set. Thus, an integrated life-cycle model that includes these events and their interactions is necessary for predicting under natural conditions each phenological transition, the overall life cycle, and the persistence of effects of environmental perturbations. Using the abundant genetic information on the molecular-genetic basis of flowering and germination in Arabidopsis thaliana, this project will develop integrated life-history models to predict genotype-specific performance across a geographic range with different climatic scenarios. These predictions will be tested using unique genetic material of different combinations of germination and flowering alleles in seasonally contrasting field sites. This work directly pertains to predicting plant responses to climate change. It aims to predict germination timing and synchrony under various climatic conditions, which is of direct interest in agricultural settings. The model will also predict how changes in germination timing affect reproductive timing and yield, which is important for predicting responses of crop species as well as the weeds that grow with them. Finally, it uses genotypes containing candidate genetic loci for dormancy manipulations to assess how those genes will respond to altered climates.