Complexity, Uncertainty, and Macroeconomic Policy in the Global Economy

全球经济中的复杂性、不确定性和宏观经济政策知识产权全球对价值储存金融工具的巨大需求加快了复杂金融创新的步伐。许多建立在这些创新基础上的市场突然崩溃，造成了巨大的混乱和恐惧，在最近的全球金融危机中发挥了核心作用。在这一事件中实施的最有效的经济政策旨在通过提供广泛的公共保障来减轻这种恐惧和混乱，这并非巧合。该项目的目的是在宏观经济框架内为这些要素提供正式的基础：金融创新背后的全球宏观经济力量，复杂性，不确定性（恐惧），以及在这些要素发挥核心作用的环境中的最佳政策反应。这一建议的学术价值在于为现代和全球金融体系中系统脆弱性的内在来源提供了一个新的视角。其目标是提供一套新的宏观经济模型，其中金融创新源于全球宏观经济力量，冲击源于金融网络的复杂性，以及在系统性危机期间与金融网络相互作用而产生的不可计量的风险所造成的恐慌。虽然该项目的核心是理论性的，但它将是基于背景的（即，使用广泛的财务数据来支持特定的建模）。PI还打算将这些模型作为一种组织手段，就需要收集哪些数据来衡量金融体系中的系统性风险积累提出建议。更广泛的影响这一建议的更广泛影响是为应对金融危机和恐慌的一些最具破坏性的方面提供政策框架的基础。由于该项目的目的是改善政策设计，但要用正式的模型来做，因此其教育价值超出了具体模型，将决策者的关注和博士的利益更紧密地结合在一起。学生

Complexity, Uncertainty, and Macroeconomic Policy in the Global EconomyIntellectual MeritThe large global demand for store-of-value financial instruments accelerated the pace of complex financial innovations. The enormous confusion and fear caused by the sudden unravelling of many of the markets which were built on these innovations played a central role in the recent global financial crisis. It is no coincidence that the most effective economic policies implemented during this episode targeted the alleviation of this fear and confusion by providing extensive public guarantees. The purpose of this project is to provide a formal underpinning to each of these elements within a macroeconomic framework: The global macroeconomic forces behind financial innovation, complexity, Knightian uncertainty (fear), and the optimal policy response in settings where these ingredients play a central role. The intellectual merit of this proposal is to provide a new perspective on the endogenous sources of systemic fragility in a modern and global financial system. The goal is to provide a new set of macroeconomic models in which financial innovation stems from global macroeconomic forces, and shocks arise from the complexity of the financial network and the panics caused by the unmeasurable exposures that can arise from interacting with the financial network during times of systemic distress. While the core of the project is theoretical, it will be context-based (i.e., use extensive financial data to support the specific modeling). The PI also intends to use the models as an organizing device to make proposals on the kind of data that needs to be collected to measure the buildup of systemic risk in a financial system.Broader ImpactThe broader impact of this proposal is to offer a foundation for a policy framework to deal with some of the most damaging aspects of financial crises and panics. Since the purpose of the project is to improve policy design, but to do so with formal models, its educational value beyond the specific models is to bring closer together the concerns of policymakers and the interests of Ph.D. students.