WSC - Category 1:Water Sustainability and Climate in the Great Lakes Region of East Africa

自人类进化以来，热带东非的大湖地区一直吸引着人类的居住和定居，因为这里的条件有利于农业，鱼类丰富，淡水明显过剩，气候条件相对可以忍受，风景优美。然而，尽管有这些自然优势，尽管在其大湖中存在世界上25%的地表水资源，该地区仍然是世界上最不发达的地区之一。该地区的人口增长率平均每年为3%，在湖岸附近要高得多；由于过度捕捞和环境压力，鱼类数量急剧下降；由于淡水输入和蒸发损失之间的平衡几乎摇摇欲坠，湖泊水位和流入非洲三大河流的水量每年都在急剧变化；地下水供应和水质正在恶化；土壤侵蚀正在耗尽土壤肥力。由于高度依赖自然资源的直接利用，环境退化的其他方面正在威胁湖泊生态系统、当地供水、农业生产力和人类福利。研究人员将在明年以一个团队的形式开会，为马拉维湖盆地的水可持续性和气候制定一个跨学科的研究计划。马拉维湖盆地一方面代表了热带东非大部分大湖地区的典型，但另一方面又危险地靠近南部非洲的降雨制度，据预测，随着未来的气候变化，南部非洲将变得更加干旱。该小组将在理论框架的背景下提出一系列假设，这些假设涵盖了气候、水和人类活动领域的强迫、反应和反馈等首要问题。他们计划举行两次会议：第一次会议将在明尼苏达州举行，在那里他们将讨论关键问题并确定需要及时收集的额外信息和数据，以便3-4个月后在马拉维举行的第二次会议为第二年的WSC第二类项目制定提案。虽然这个项目将侧重于马拉维盆地，但其结果将适用于气候和社会条件非常相似的热带东非的大部分地区。虽然他们的研究计划的这个规划阶段不涉及学生，但他们的目标是成功地开发一个资助的五年研究项目，该项目将涉及美国学生和他们以及他们在东非的马拉维同事，同时为非洲教师和学生创造机会，参与研究的各个方面。这将有助于非洲科学界的能力建设。

The great lakes region of tropical East Africa has been a magnet for human occupation and settlement since the evolution of our species because of conditions favorable to agriculture, an abundance of fish, an apparent surplus of fresh water, relatively tolerable climatic conditions, and an aesthetically pleasing landscape. However the region remains among the most underdeveloped in the world despite these natural advantages and despite the presence of 25% of the world's surface water resources in its great lakes. Human population growth in the region averages 3% per year and is substantially higher near lakeshores, fish populations are plummeting in response to over fishing and environmental stress, lake levels and outflows to Africa's three largest rivers shift dramatically from year to year as a result of a near-but-teetering balance between fresh water input and evaporative loss, ground water supply and quality are deteriorating, soil erosion is depleting soil fertility, and other aspects of environmental degradation, resulting from high dependence on direct utilization of natural resources, are threatening the lake ecosystems, local water supplies, agricultural productivity, and human welfare. Investigators will meet as a team during the coming year to develop an interdisciplinary research plan for water sustainability and climate in the Lake Malawi basin, which on the one hand typifies much of the great lakes region of tropical East Africa, but on the other lies precariously close to the southern Africa rainfall regime, which is predicted to become more arid with future climate change. The team will develop a set of hypotheses in the context of theoretical frameworks that encompass over-arching issues of forcing, response, and feedbacks in the areas of climate, water, and human activity. They plan two meetings: the first in Minnesota where they will address key questions and identify additional information and data that need to be collected in time for a second meeting to be held 3-4 months later in Malawi to formulate a proposal for a WSC Category II project in the following year. While this project will focus on the Malawi basin, the results will be applicable to most of tropical East Africa, where the conditions of climate and society are quite similar. While this planning phase of their research plan does not involve students, their goal is to succeed in developing a funded, five-year research program that will involve American students working with them and their Malawi colleagues in East Africa, as well as creating opportunities for African faculty and students to be involved with all aspects of the research. This will contribute to capacity building in the African scientific community.