RAPID Deepwater Horizon oil spill: Impacts on Blue Crab population dynamics and connectivity.

智力优势：蓝蟹是墨西哥湾重要的生态和经济物种。在切萨皮克湾和北卡罗来纳州，蓝蟹近年来遭受了原因不明的种群崩溃，据称是由于捕鱼压力增加和栖息地退化。尽管这种物种很重要，而且它们的种群容易崩溃，但对于蓝蟹来说，仍然缺乏一个现实的和可预测的种群模型。这个快速项目将使用集合种群方法来了解和预测蓝蟹的种群动态。蓝蟹在海洋中度过它们的初始、幼体和生命阶段，然后在幼体和成体阶段招募到河口。在将要使用的集合种群模型中，将使用渔业数据、遥感栖息地质量估计和估计自相残食率的野外实验的结果来描述和参数化斑块(河口)的局部动态。PI将使用粒子跟踪方法，使用精细的空间显式海洋环流模型来估计种群的连通性(幼虫在河口之间的扩散)。2010年4月20日，当深水地平线石油钻井平台爆炸并开始向墨西哥湾排放数百万加仑石油时，蓝蟹的产卵季节才刚刚开始。在这项快速调查中，PIS建议调查石油和化学分散剂对蓝蟹幼体阶段的影响，并最终通过在距离油源不同的三个海洋位置采样浮游幼体来研究对蓝蟹种群动态的影响。结果将评估油和分散剂对幼虫的致死和亚致死效应。他们将把石油和分散剂的范围和浓度纳入粒子跟踪模型，并用它来预测石油泄漏对整个墨西哥湾的扩散和招募的影响。为了验证模型结果，私人投资总监将在大片海岸线上的河口进行抽样，包括未受影响、受轻微影响和受漏油影响严重的地区。他们将把结果纳入集合种群模型，以探索泄漏对墨西哥湾蓝蟹种群及其渔业的长期影响。广泛影响：私人投资机构打算将这一快速项目的结果用于为渔业政策提供信息，以防止墨西哥湾蓝蟹渔业的崩溃，特别是鉴于最近的石油泄漏。目前的蓝蟹渔业评估缺乏扩散信息，在帮助决定如何不加剧石油泄漏的影响方面，这些信息现在可能被证明特别重要。它们的采样还将有助于记录和考虑石油和分散剂对其他具有商业和生态重要性的浮游幼虫物种的影响，如黑鱼和虾。这个项目将为几个本科生和研究生提供跨学科的研究经验，包括实地项目和计算经验。

Intellectual Merit:Blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) are an ecologically and economically important species in the Gulf of Mexico. In Chesapeake Bay and North Carolina, blue crabs have suffered from unexplained population crashes in recent years, purportedly due to increase fishing pressure and habitat degradation. Despite the importance of this species and the propensity for their stocks to crash, a realistic and predictive population model is still lacking for blue crabs.This RAPID project will use a metapopulation approach to understand and predict the population dynamics of blue crabs. Blue crabs spend their initial, larval, life-stages in the ocean then recruit to estuaries for their juvenile and adult stages. In the metapopulation model to be used, local dynamics in a patch (estuary) will be described and parameterized using fisheries data, remotely-sensed habitat quality estimates, and results from field experiments estimating cannibalism rates. The PIs will estimate connectivity (dispersal of larvae between estuaries) of the population with a particle tracking approach using a fine-scale, spatially-explicit ocean circulation model.When the Deepwater Horizon oil rig exploded on April 20, 2010, and began discharging several million gallons of oil into the Gulf, blue crabs were just beginning their spawning season. In this RAPID, the PIs propose to investigate the impacts of the oil and chemical dispersants on the larval stages, and ultimately on population dynamics, of blue crabs by sampling planktonic larvae at three ocean locations that vary in distance from the oil source. Results will estimate both lethal and sub-lethal effects of oil and dispersants on larvae. They will incorporate the extent and concentration of oil and dispersants into the particle-tracking model and use it to predict the effects of the oil spill on dispersal and recruitment for the entire Gulf of Mexico. To validate model results, the PIs will sample recruitment to estuaries over a wide stretch of the coastline, including areas unaffected, lightly affected and heavily affected by the spill. They will incorporate results into the metapopulation model to explore the long-term effects of the spill on the Gulf of Mexico blue crab population and its fishery.Broader Impacts:The PIs intend that results from this RAPID project will be used to inform fisheries policy so as to prevent collapses of blue crab fishery in the Gulf, especially in light of the recent oil spill. Dispersal information is lacking from current blue crab fishery assessments and may prove especially important now in helping to decide how to not exacerbate the effects of the oil spill. Their sampling will also be useful to document and consider the effects of oil and of dispersants on other commercially and ecologically important species with planktonic larvae, such as menhaden and shrimp. This project will provide interdisciplinary research experiences for several undergraduate and graduate students including field projects as well as computational experience.