RAPID: Evaluation of the near term impact of the Deepwater Horizon blowout to the South Florida coast

智力优势：这个快速项目旨在评估流入环流的石油产品可能如何、在哪里以及何时可能影响南佛罗里达海岸。由于大范围洋流系统的夹带，墨西哥湾北部深水漏油正在威胁着佛罗里达州南部的沿海地区。对石油的运输和去向的评估需要同时考虑到跨海洋尺度和与沿海生态系统有关的尺度的过程。为此，综合使用一系列嵌套的海洋和沿海环流模式作为单一应用至关重要，以便能够确定从墨西哥湾较深部分到佛罗里达州海湾和佛罗里达州珊瑚礁航迹的浅水区的石油混合物的路径。过去在利用多尺度数值模拟框架将高分辨率佛罗里达关键模式与墨西哥湾实时混合坐标海洋模式(HYCOM)海洋预报系统嵌套的工作中，连通性建模系统(CMS)为本研究提供了框架。这个最初为幼虫运输和连通性研究开发的建模框架非常适合于快速评估佛罗里达州南部海岸深水地平线井喷的影响。CMS具有嵌入的拉格朗日随机粒子模型的层次结构，允许具有单个属性和行为的粒子的概率分散，并具有跟踪粒子在嵌套区域中的三维运动的能力。首先，将利用该区域迄今可用的最高分辨率业务产品(即，1-4公里的基于HYCOM的海洋预报系统)进行CMS的概率运行，以模拟表层浮层、次表层和深层羽流的形成及其通往环流的路径。为了做到这一点，我们将使CMS适应油气混合物的行为(即流量、密度、粘度、终端速度)，并增加风力、蒸发和风化过程。研究人员将使用油混合物行为的包络，改变模型中颗粒的大小，并通过系统地将模型结果与欧拉观测的时间序列进行比较来改进“油模块”。其次，将模拟飓风对油类在水柱中重新分布的影响。鉴于石油预测问题固有的巨大不确定性，拟议的研究将产生对石油-分散剂混合物对南佛罗里达海岸的近期影响的统计估计。更广泛的影响：该项目将提供对由于循环与混合了大量分散剂的石油的相互作用而产生的运输路径和聚集区的新的理解。此外，它还将有助于指导在现场检测石油产品方面的其他快速努力。从长远来看，拟议的工作将成为研究石油及其风化状态对海洋浮游植物和渔业的影响的基线。结果还将有助于各机构和学术界开展业务努力，帮助为未来的任何极端事件做好准备。该项目的调查人员将与其他在墨西哥湾工作的科学家合作。目前学术工作组罗森斯蒂尔海洋和大气科学学院网站(http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/oil-spill))上的网站链接将使用适应石油的CMS进行扩展，使其能够从墨西哥湾区域模式转换到高分辨率佛罗里达群岛模式。最后，多尺度CMS框架被设计为一个社区模型，并经过了严格的测试。我们计划利用拟议的努力，确保在秋季晚些时候公开发布开放源代码和用户指南(www.rsmas.miami.edu/personal/cparis/cms/description.html).

Intellectual merit: This RAPID project aims to assess how, where, and when the oil products entrained in the Loop Current might impact the South Florida coast. The oil spill from deep waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico is threatening coastal areas in south Florida due to entrainment in the large-scale current system. Assessment of the transport and the fate of the oil require processes extending across oceanic scales and scales relevant to coastal ecosystems to be taken into account simultaneously. To this end, the integrated use of a series of nested ocean and coastal circulation models as a single application is critical in order to be able to identify pathways of the oil mixture from the deeper part of the Gulf of Mexico to the shallow areas of Florida Bay and the Florida coral reef track. Past work in nesting a high-resolution Florida Key model with the Gulf of Mexico real-time Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM)-based Ocean Predictions System using a multi-scale numerical modeling framework, the Connectivity Modeling System (CMS) provides the framework for this study. This modeling framework, originally developed for larval transport and connectivity studies, is well suited for rapid assessment of the impact of the Deepwater Horizon blowout on south Florida coast. The CMS has a hierarchy of embedded Lagrangian Stochastic Particle Models allowing probabilistic dispersion of particles with individual attributes and behaviors and has the capability of tracking the three-dimensional movement of the particles across nested domains. First, the formation of surface slicks, subsurface layers, and deep plumes and their pathways to the Loop Current will be simulated by conducting probabilistic runs of CMS with the highest resolution operational products available yet for the region (i.e., 1-4 km HYCOM-based Ocean Predictions System). In order to do this, we will adapt CMS to oil-gas mixture behavior (i.e., flow rate, density, viscosity, terminal velocity) and add processes of wind forcing, evaporation and weathering. The investigators will use an envelop of oil mixture behavior, varying the size of particles in the model and improve the 'oil module' through systematic comparisons of model results with time series of Eulerian observations. Second, the effect of hurricanes on the redistribution of the oil in the water column will be simulated. Given the large uncertainties inherent in the oil prediction problem, the proposed research will generate statistical estimates of the near-term impact of the oil-dispersant mixture to the South Florida coast.Broader Impacts: This project will provide a new understanding of transport pathways and accumulating areas resulting from the interactions of the circulation with the oil mixed with huge quantities of dispersant. Further, it will help guiding other RAPID efforts on field detection of oil products. In the longer term, the proposed work will constitute a baseline for studying the impact of the oil and its weathered states on the marine meroplankton and on fisheries. Results will also be useful to develop operational efforts in agencies and academia that will help preparedness for any future extreme events. The investigators on this project will collaborate with other scientists working in the Gulf of Mexico.Current website links on the Academic Task Force Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science website (http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/oil-spill) having updates of HYCOM water parcel trajectories will be expanded using the CMS adapted to the oil with its capability to go from the Gulf of Mexico regional model to the high resolution Florida Keys model. Finally, the multi-scale CMS framework is designed to be a community model and has been undergoing rigorous testing. We are planning to use the proposed effort to insure a public release of an open source code and user's guide later in the fall (http:// www.rsmas.miami.edu/personal/cparis/cms/description.html).