Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Treaty Compliance, Enforcement and Monitoring: A Preference-Based Approach

多边条约代表了全球合作中一些最雄心勃勃、最全面但也最具争议的努力。本项目解决了关于这些条约的两个首要问题：(1)哪一种条约设计在促使签署国遵守条约的能力方面“更强”？(2)不同类型的制度如何应对不同的条约执行和监督机制？该项目将对各国签署条约的决定、这些条约的设计和各国遵守率之间的关系进行深入的定量分析。进行这种研究的一个问题是，很难从观察到的遵守率推断出一项条约正在有效地发挥作用。社会科学家早就认识到这个问题，但一直未能找到有效的解决办法。这个项目对这个长期存在的问题的解决方案是基于这样一种观念，即条约在一定程度上是有效的，因为它们使各国做了一些它们本来不会做的事情。因此，要了解条约是否有效，第一个任务是估计各国在任何情况下遵守条约的可能性。研究者使用他发明的一种新方法来克服这个问题。这种方法背后的直觉是，通过观察和比较许多国家过去在条约方面的行为，有可能发现哪些条约更接近每个国家偏好的一套行动。使用这种方法，调查人员将得到的结果不仅表明哪些条约在修改国家行为方面是有效的，而且还表明它们在多大程度上有效，这将允许进行有价值的逐个条约的比较。这项研究将包括处理贸易、金融、人权、环境和军备控制问题的一些最突出的全球条约。本项目方法上的创新本身就有助于了解哪些条约有效，哪些条约无效。除此之外，该项目还允许评估哪些类型的条约执行和监督机制对国家行为有相对较大的影响。例如，这项研究将表明依靠国内法院执行的条约是否比依靠国际法院执行的条约更有效。此外，该项目还考虑到体制条约机制与国家特点之间的重要相互作用。例如，它可以评估哪些类型的条约对民主国家最有效，哪些条约更有可能改变非民主国家的行为。因此，该项目将做出几项更广泛的贡献。它将增进对条约机构的了解，这反过来又可以大大有利于全球合作的前景。本项目旨在从理论和经验两方面表明，哪些类型的条约执行和监督机制能够在更大程度上遵守条约。因此，其结果可以指导今后的条约谈判，并建议哪些条约机制可能比其他机制更有效，以及在哪些情况下更有效。

Multilateral treaties represent some of the most ambitious, comprehensive, and yet controversial efforts at global cooperation. This project addresses two overarching questions about these treaties: (1) Which treaty designs are "stronger" in terms of their ability to bring signatories into compliance? (2) How do different types of regimes react to different treaty enforcement and monitoring mechanisms? The project will conduct an in-depth quantitative analysis of the relationship between countries' decisions to sign treaties, the designs of those treaties, and countries' rates of compliance. One problem in doing such research is that it is difficult to infer from rates of observed compliance that a treaty is working effectively. Social scientists have long recognized this problem, but have not been able to find an effective solution to it. This project's solution to the long-standing problem is based on the notion that treaties work to the extent they cause countries to do something they would not otherwise do. Accordingly, to understand whether or not treaties work, the first task is to estimate the probability with which countries would have complied with treaties in any event. The investigator uses a novel methodology he has developed to overcome this problem. The intuition behind the method is that, by observing and comparing the past behaviors of many countries with respect to treaties, it is possible to discover which treaties are closer to each country's preferred set of actions. Using this method, the investigator will have results that indicate not only which treaties are effective at modifying countries' behaviors, but also the extent to which they do so, which will allow for valuable treaty-by-treaty comparisons. This study will include some of the most prominent global treaties dealing with trade, finance, human rights, environmental and arms control issues.This project's methodological innovation in itself improves understanding of which treaties work well and which do not. Beyond that, the project permits assessment of which types of treaty enforcement and monitoring mechanisms have relatively great effects on state behavior. For example, the study will indicate whether treaties that rely on domestic courts for enforcement are more effective than those that rely on international courts. In addition, the project takes account of the important interaction between institutional treaty mechanisms and country characteristics. It allows appraisal, for example, of which types of treaties are most effective with respect to democracies and which are more likely to change the behaviors of non-democracies.The project will thus make several broader contributions. It will enhance understanding of treaty institutions, which in turn could significantly benefit the prospects of global cooperation. This project is designed to indicate, both theoretically and empirically, which types of treaty enforcement and monitoring mechanisms lead to greater degrees of treaty compliance. Its results could therefore guide future treaty negotiations and suggest which treaty mechanisms are more likely to be effective than others and in which contexts.