Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Social Networks and Electoral Strategies in the Philippines

政治学博士论文研究：菲律宾的社交网络和选举策略

• 批准号: 1023568
• 负责人: David Lake
• 金额: $ 1万
• 依托单位: University of California-San Diego
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-09-01 至 2011-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1023568&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Political; Science

How can politicians be encouraged to choose pro-growth or development-oriented policies in new democracies? There is a growing consensus that political factors--in particular, good governance and accountability--are key determinants of economic success and, in turn, development aid effectiveness. The problem, however, is that growth-promoting policies, including providing necessary public goods, are not always attractive to politicians seeking re-election (Bueno de Mesquita, Smith et al. 2003; Vicente and Wantchekon 2008). This dissertation develops a new theory of politics in emerging democracies in which politicians win office at the local government level through ex ante strategies of vote buying, in which politicians give gifts or money to individuals in exchange for their vote (Schaffer and Schedler 2007), and ex post strategies of clientelism, through which politicians offer targeted private goods for electoral support (Kitschelt and Wilkinson 2007; Stokes 2007). The density of social networks is an important determinant of the choice between these two strategies. Close social ties and repeated interactions facilitate monitoring and verifying political exchange between politicians and individual voters. The theory implies that villages with dense social networks will be characterized by ex post strategies while villages lacking these network structures will use ex ante strategies. Similarly, the researcher hypothesizes that individual position in the social network affects whether voters are targeted for ex ante or ex post political exchange: the less connected are more targeted for vote-buying and less targeted for clientelistic exchange than the well-connected.This dissertation will undertake a set of household and politician surveys in Isabela Province, the second largest province in the Philippines, building on data collected from a baseline survey of politics and local service delivery recently conducted by the World Bank. This proposed survey employs two methodological innovations: 1) collecting social network data to evaluate network structure and to identify the position of individuals within the network; and 2) employing new survey methods that allow respondents to shield their response from enumerators (unmatched count technique) that are expected to reduce the under-reporting of vote buying. The use of social network analysis and of new survey methods allows for an assessment of the role of social networks in determining the monitoring and verification costs associated with the different political strategies.This project is the first to study the determinants of ex ante vs. ex post mechanisms of contingent political exchange. Understanding these mechanisms can help policymakers and local NGOs to design more effective voter education initiatives in the Philippines and better address the needs of groups that are particularly vulnerable to vote buying and other illegal practices. For example, many current anti-vote buying initiatives in the Philippines are organized through churches and civic groups. However, if people with fewer social ties to the community are targeted for vote buying at higher rates than those that are more integrated, such programs will not be able to reach the most vulnerable groups. Additionally, programs implemented through existing social groups may even have the unintended consequence of further widening the gap in voter awareness between well-connected and less-connected individuals. This study will also help improve the effectiveness of development aid and economic policy reform (e.g., Burnside and Dollar 2000). One puzzle in the aid literature is why many countries are unable to foster political accountability, even after adopting institutions such as free elections and term limits. This study can contribute to the design of economic reform interventions by the World Bank and other aid organizations by identifying political and social structures that undermine political accountability and prevent growth-friendly economic policies from being viable electoral strategies.

如何鼓励政治家在新的民主政体中选择有利于增长或以发展为导向的政策？越来越多的人达成共识，认为政治因素--特别是善政和问责--是经济成功的关键决定因素，进而决定发展援助的有效性。然而，问题是，促进增长的政策，包括提供必要的公共产品，并不总是对寻求连任的政客有吸引力(Bueno de Mesquita，Smith等人)。2003年；Vicente和Wantchekon 2008年)。本文提出了新兴民主国家政治的新理论，其中政治家通过事前的选票收买策略(Schaffer And Schedler 2007)和事后的裙带主义策略(Kitschelt and Wilkinson 2007；Stokes 2007)赢得地方政府层面的职位。社交网络的密度是在这两种策略之间做出选择的重要决定因素。密切的社会关系和反复的互动有助于监测和核实政客和个人选民之间的政治交流。该理论表明，具有密集社会网络的村庄将采用事后策略，而缺乏这些网络结构的村庄将使用事前策略。同样，研究人员假设，个人在社交网络中的位置会影响选民是事前还是事后的政治交换的目标：与人脉深厚的人相比，人脉较少的人更容易被视为收买选票的目标，而不是被视为裙带关系交换的目标。本文将基于世界银行最近对政治和当地服务提供情况进行的基线调查收集的数据，在菲律宾第二大省伊萨贝拉省进行一系列家庭和政客调查。这项拟议的调查采用了两种方法创新：1)收集社交网络数据以评估网络结构并确定个人在网络中的位置；2)采用新的调查方法，使受访者的回答不受统计者的影响(不匹配的计数技术)，预计将减少对选票购买的漏报。利用社会网络分析和新的调查方法，可以评估社会网络在确定与不同政治战略有关的监测和核查费用方面的作用。该项目是第一个研究权变政治交流的事前和事后机制的决定因素的项目。了解这些机制可以帮助政策制定者和当地非政府组织在菲律宾设计更有效的选民教育倡议，并更好地满足特别容易受到收买选票和其他非法行为影响的群体的需求。例如，菲律宾目前的许多反收买选票活动都是通过教堂和公民团体组织起来的。然而，如果与社区社会联系较少的人成为收买选票的目标，收购率高于那些融入程度更高的人，这样的计划将无法接触到最脆弱的群体。此外，通过现有社会团体实施的计划甚至可能产生意想不到的后果，进一步扩大人脉较广和人脉较少的个人之间的选民意识差距。这项研究还将有助于提高发展援助和经济政策改革的效力(例如，伯恩赛德和美元2000)。援助文献中的一个谜题是，为什么许多国家即使采用了自由选举和任期限制等制度，也无法促进政治问责。这项研究有助于设计世界银行和其他援助组织的经济改革干预措施，确定破坏政治问责的政治和社会结构，并阻止有利于增长的经济政策成为可行的选举战略。