GOALI: Think Globally, Act Locally -- China and the Future of Energy Saving Vehicle Technologies

近年来，需求和生产的地点发生了戏剧性的转变，从发达国家转向工业化国家。为了保持竞争力，美国公司和政策制定者必须了解这些转变对新技术和技术轨迹的经济可行性的重要性。该项目制定了一种方法，以评估特定国家在市场和生产特征方面的差异对新兴技术的相对竞争力的影响，从而对全球技术轨迹的影响。该项目专注于汽车行业乘用车的节能汽车技术，尤其是考察了在美国与中国的竞争对新兴技术在替代动力总成领域的相对竞争力的影响。项目成果包括1)整合市场和制造模型以确定在高度不确定性的特定国家背景下最具竞争力的技术的一般建模方法；2)确定一组行业特定变量，预测国家背景将如何以不同方式影响不同产品、公司或行业的技术决策；以及3)洞察全球生产和需求地点变化对节能汽车技术未来的影响。为了实现这些结果，我们的主要研究任务是：1)模拟美国和中国市场对汽车属性的偏好；2)模拟美国和中国的汽车生产和相关成本；3)确定每个地点最具经济竞争力的设计，并找出影响这一选择的关键地点因素；4)分析全球平台经济学，以了解当地差异的全球影响。我们的主要教育任务是1)将研究和工业带入课堂；2)将博士生送到底特律和北京，与一家主要的美国汽车制造商进行数据收集和知识交流；以及3)向政策制定者传播我们的成果，以帮助弥合技术政策决策与企业面临的实时经济之间的差距。更广泛的影响：今天只有15%的制造业增加值发生在美国，美国在全球制造业和需求中的份额继续下降。尽管有这些趋势，尽管最近的研究表明了国家背景对技术竞争力的重要性，但我们对国家背景如何影响公司和国家技术战略的经济生存能力的科学知识相对较少。通过1)在不确定的情况下量化国家需求和生产差异对技术竞争力的重要性，以及2)确定决定国家背景所起作用的关键行业特定因素，本研究有助于为全球技术决策和国际生产和需求区位趋势对技术演变的影响提供新的理论。此外，该项目的具体案例发现为汽车行业和国家政策制定者提供了关键的见解，使他们能够了解最近汽车需求和生产地点的变化对下一代汽车节能设计的经济可行性和经济激励的影响。

In recent years there has been a dramatic shift in the location of demand and production from developed to industrializing countries. To remain competitive, U.S. firms and policymakers must understand the significance these shifts for the economic viability of new technologies and technology trajectories. This project develops a methodology to assess the impact of nation-specific differences in market and production characteristics on the relative competitiveness of emerging technologies and, consequentially, on global technology trajectories. The project focuses on energy-saving vehicle technologies for passenger cars in the automotive industry -- in particular, it looks at the implications of locating in the U.S. versus China for the relative competitiveness of emerging technologies in alternative powertrains. The project outcomes include 1) a general modeling approach for integrating market and manufacturing models to determine the most competitive technology in nation-specific contexts under high uncertainty; 2) identification of a set of industry-specific variables predictive of how national context will impact technology decision-making differently across different products, firms, or industries; and 3) insights into the implications of global shifts in the location of production and demand for the future of energy-saving automotive technologies. To achieve these outcomes, our primary research tasks are to 1) model market preferences for vehicle attributes in the U.S. and in China; 2) model vehicle production and associated costs in the U.S. and in China; 3) determine the most economically competitive designs in each location and identify critical location-specific factors affecting this choice; and 4) analyze global platform economics to understand the global implications of local differences. Our primary educational tasks are 1) to bring research and industry into the classroom; 2) to send Ph.D. students to Detroit and Beijing for data collection and knowledge exchange with a major U.S. auto manufacturer; and 3) to disseminate our results to policymakers to help bridge the gap between technology policy decision-making and the real-time economics facing companies. Broader Impact: Today only 15% of manufacturing value-added occurs in the U.S., and the U.S. share of global manufacturing and demand continues to decline. Despite these trends, and despite recent research demonstrating the significance of national context for technology competitiveness, we hold relatively little scientific knowledge about how national contexts affect the economic viability of firm and national technology strategies. By 1) quantifying the significance of national differences in demand and production for technology competitiveness given uncertainty and 2) identifying key industry-specific factors determining the role that national context plays, this research contributes to a new theory for global technology decision-making and the impact of international trends in production and demand location on the evolution of technology. In addition, this project's case-specific findings provide the automotive industry and national policy-makers with critical insights into the impact of recent shifts in the location of automobile demand and production on the economic viability of, and economic incentives for, energy-saving designs in next-generation automobiles.