GOALI: Reliability-Based Design and Operation of Metal Rolling Mills using Bayesian Theory and a New Rolling Model

GOALI学术联络机会奖的研究目标是应用一种新的简化的混合有限元辊叠偏转模型作为证据，结合贝叶斯理论来计算在金属轧制中获得重要标准的概率，包括带材厚度分布和带材平直度分布。概率预测将用于研究轧制过程不确定性的传播效应，并创建新的基于可靠性的轧机模拟和控制模型，从而实现更高质量、更高效的轧制计划。金属轧制行业解决过程不确定性的传统方法是使用统计过程控制来简单地监控由此导致的质量和效率标准的变化。这种“向后看”的方法是有限的，因为它既不调整也不优化基于滚动需求的预测概率估计的工艺设置参数。相比之下，该研究奖的方法是引入一种全新的“前瞻性”方法，基于对带钢厚度和板形的概率预测来优化轧制参数。如果成功，这项研究将使许多生产钢、铝和铜板的公司受益。这些公司将能够以更高的速度轧制金属产品，并具有出色的平整度和厚度型材。金属轧钢机和相关控制系统的制造商也将受益于设计更具竞争力的轧制设备和系统的能力。这项研究的更广泛的社会和教育影响包括由圣路易斯刘易斯和克拉克教育学院为市中心青少年提供的暑期工作坊计划。这些题为“数学和制造”的工作坊将激发五至八年级学生对数学、科学和工程在工业中所扮演的令人兴奋的角色的兴趣。此外，由行业合作伙伴的工程师指导的研究型课堂项目将为工科本科生提供丰富的学习体验。

The research objective of this Grant Opportunity for Academic Liaison with Industry (GOALI) award is to apply a new simplified, mixed finite element roll-stack deflection model as evidence with Bayesian Theory to calculate probabilities of attaining important criteria in metal rolling, including strip thickness profile and strip flatness distributions. The probability predictions will be used to study propagation effects of rolling process uncertainties, and to create new reliability-based mill simulation and control models that lead to higher quality, more efficient rolling schedules. The metal rolling industry's traditional way of addressing process uncertainties is to use statistical process control to simply monitor resulting variations in quality and efficiency criteria. This "backward-looking" approach is limited in that it neither adjusts nor optimizes the process set-up parameters based on predictive probability estimates of the rolling requirements. In contrast, the approach of this research award is to introduce an entirely new "forward-looking" method to optimize rolling parameters based on probability predictions for strip thickness profile and flatness.If successful, this research will economically benefit the many companies producing steel, aluminum, and copper sheet. These companies will be able to roll metal products at higher speeds, and with superior flatness and thickness profiles. The manufacturers of metal rolling mills and associated control systems will also benefit from the capability to design more competitive rolling equipment and systems. The broader societal and educational impacts of this research involve summer workshop programs for inner city teens offered by the Lewis & Clark Educational Institute of Saint Louis. These workshops, entitled "Math and Manufacturing", will spark the interest of fifth to eighth graders as to the exciting roles that math, science, and engineering play in industry. Furthermore, research-driven classroom projects, mentored by engineers from the industry partner, will provide undergraduates engineering students with an enriched learning experience.