The Impact of Downward Wave Coupling on the Tropospheric Circulation

PI将在再分析资料中研究下行波耦合(DWC)对对流层环流和气候影响的动力学性质，以及它在最先进的季节预报和气候模式中的表现。目标是评估对流层季节预报和气候预报的潜在影响。这项研究将集中在北半球，那里的平流层变化允许明显的月份间隔，DWC和向下的纬向平均耦合。分析将深入了解单个波反射事件和复合事件的动力学原因和演变，以了解(I)平流层行星波反射对对流层波型的相位和幅度结构的直接影响，(Ii)DWC对对流层中层和地面对流层环流的后续影响，以及它们与纬向平均向下耦合的影响的比较。增进对平流层影响对流层的动力过程的了解，有可能改进季节预报和气候预报，从而产生重大的社会影响。

The PI will investigate the dynamical nature of the impact of downward wave coupling (DWC) on the tropospheric circulation and climate in reanalysis data and its representation in a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast and climate model. The goal is to assess the potential impact for seasonal forecasts and climate prediction in the troposphere. The research will focus on the Northern Hemisphere where the stratospheric variability allows for a clear separation of months with DWC and downward zonal mean coupling. The analysis will shed insights into the dynamical cause and evolution of individual wave reflection events and composite events to understand (i) the direct impacts of planetary wave reflection from the stratosphere on the phase and amplitude structure of the tropospheric wave pattern and (ii) the subsequent impacts of DWC on the tropospheric circulation both in the mid troposphere and the surface and how they compare to the impacts of downward zonal mean coupling. Increased understanding of the dynamical processes by which the stratosphere can influence the troposphere has the potential to lead to improved seasonal forecasting and climate prediction, thus leading to significant societal impacts.