Cartel Birth, Death, and Detection

卡特尔是什么时候形成的？哪些市场条件有利于卡特尔的形成？卡特尔能持续多久？我们能指望卡特尔在哪些市场长期存在？经济衰退对卡特尔活动有何影响？执法努力，如宽大处理计划，是否正在减少卡特尔的频率？哪些新政策可能会被证明是有效的？这个奖项资助了对这些问题和其他问题的研究，使用了多种研究方法。PI将使用卡特尔诞生和死亡的随机动态模型来分析一个经济体中卡特尔持续时间和卡特尔频率的可能决定因素。PI将使用这个生灭过程来模拟包括一些内生卡特尔的行业的面板数据集。该模拟模型将被用来确定改进的方法，以通过发现的卡特尔数据估计被发现的概率；提供各种竞争政策的事前评估；最后发现潜在卡特尔比率的有用指标，以改进卡特尔政策的事后评估。PI还将使用定性研究方法，通过分析美国和欧洲的案例和对参与卡特尔安排的高管的采访，开发有关卡特尔出生、死亡和侦破的新事实。案例分析将更好地识别卡特尔侦破的真正来源。采访揭示了企业为什么选择组建卡特尔，以及是什么原因导致卡特尔崩溃。广泛的影响完全纳入了研究，因为研究问题在一定程度上是由竞争和反垄断执法机构面临的挑战驱动的。阻止和结束卡特尔对消费者有利，但很难从仅限于被观察到的卡特尔群体的观察来评估这些政策的全部好处。这里的研究方法的结合将使PI能够为美国和全球的竞争主管部门制定新的建议。

When do cartels form? What market conditions are conducive to cartel formation? How long do cartels last? In what markets can we expect cartels to persist for a long time? What are the implications of recessions for cartel activity? Are enforcement efforts, such as leniency programs, reducing the frequency of cartels? What new policies might prove effective?This award funds research into these and other questions using a combination of research methods. The PI will use a stochastic dynamic model of the birth and death of cartels to analyze the possible determinants of cartel duration and the frequency of cartels in an economy. The PI will use this birth-death process to simulate a panel data set of industries that includes some endogenous cartelization. The simulation model will be used to identify improved methods for estimating the probability of detection through data on discovered cartels; to provide an ex ante evaluation of the performance of various competition policies; and finally to discover useful proxies for the latent cartel rate to improve the ex post evaluation of cartel policies.The PI will also use qualitative research methods to develop new facts about cartel birth, death, and detection through the analysis of US and European cases and interviews with executives who have participated in cartel arrangements. The case analysis will better identify the true source of cartel detection. The interviews shed light on why firms chose to form a cartel and what caused it to break down.Broader impacts are fully integrated into the research, because the research questions are driven in part by the challenges faced by competition and antitrust enforcement agencies. Deterring and ending cartels is good for consumers, but it is difficult to evaluate the full benefit of these policies from observations limited to the population of observed cartels. The combination of research methods here will allow the PI to develop new recommendations for competition authorities in the US and also around the globe.