Doctoral Dissertation Research in DRMS: Qualitative predictions from intertemporal choice models

在这个项目中，主要研究者将检验跨期选择中贴现函数之间的质的差异。Mazur（1987）提出了双曲贴现函数。 这种类型的功能意味着经常观察到的动态不一致性-偏好反转，即代理最初喜欢较大的后奖励，但后来改变为更喜欢较小的前奖励。后来的研究者提出了替代贴现函数来解释这一点和其他经验性的错误。 双曲贴现函数仍然是最广泛接受的模型;然而，不同模型的比较并没有说服所有的研究人员，它是最好的描述理论。这可能是因为以前的模型比较集中在模型之间的定量差异，特别是每个模型和数据之间的曲线拟合。严格地说，曲线拟合并不提供关于模型是否定性正确的决定性结论。它只告诉哪个函数比其他函数更适合数据。目前的研究旨在通过强调模型之间的定性差异来提供更具决定性的证据。为了研究跨期选择的不同模型的定性预测，研究人员开发了一个新的建模框架，可以基于特定的数学模型分析不同延迟，奖励幅度和个体参数的选择模式。就更广泛的影响而言，这项研究将有利于公众和从业人员谁想要通过提供更好地理解短期诱惑和长期利益之间的冲突，以促进自我调节。它在各种领域都有影响，如退休计划，成瘾治疗，健康行为改变和拖延。

In this project the Principal Investigators will exam the qualitative differences between discounting functions in intertemporal choice. Mazur (1987) proposed the hyperbolic discounting function. This type of function implies frequently observed dynamic inconsistency - a preference reversal whereby the agent initially prefers the larger later reward but later changes to prefer the smaller sooner reward . Subsequent researchers have proposed alternative discounting functions to explain this and other empirical regularities. The hyperbolic discounting function is still the most widely accepted model; however, comparisons of different models have not convinced all researchers that it is the best descriptive theory. This may be because previous model comparisons have focused on quantitative differences among models, especially the curve fits between each model and data. Strictly speaking, a curve fit does not provide a decisive conclusion about whether the model is qualitatively correct or not. It only tells which function fits the data better than others. The current research aims to provide more decisive evidence by highlighting qualitative differences between models. To investigate the qualitative predictions of different models of intertemporal choice, the investigators have developed a new modeling framework that can analyze choice patterns across different delays, reward magnitudes, and individual parameters based on the specific mathematical models. In terms of broader impacts, this research will benefit the general public and practitioners who want to promote self-regulation by providing a better understanding of the conflicts between short-term temptations and long-term benefits. It has implications in a variety of arenas, such as retirement planning, addiction treatment, healthy behavior change, and procrastination.