SHINE: Study the Evolution of Coronal Mass Ejections from the Sun to the Earth

首席研究员（PI）将研究日冕物质抛射（cme）在太阳和地球之间的行星际空间的演变，以改进它们到达地球的时间和潜在的地球效应的预测。为了实现这一目标，PI将使用各种测量方法来全面跟踪和描述cme的运动学和形态演变，包括遥感数据和航天器的“原位”太阳风观测。使用基于第一性原理的方法，PI还将创建与观测约束相一致的适当的理论通量绳模型，以便充分理解控制CME演化的物理过程。最后，PI将建立一个有效的CME到达时间预测模型，该模型将基于对大量CME事件的全面观测和改进的特征以及一个强大的理论模型。PI认识到日冕物质抛射是近地空间环境中严重空间天气事件的已知驱动因素。由于地球空间的日冕物质抛射干扰会影响宇航员的安全，也会干扰卫星的通信和导航操作，因此这项工作将通过提高我们对日冕物质抛射演化、到达和地球有效影响的预测能力，对社会产生积极而广泛的影响。该项目还将促进研究和教育的整合，因为大部分申请的资金将用于支持研究生和博士后研究人员。PI已经开发了两门关于太阳和日球物理学的研究生课程，他还在乔治梅森大学教授空间气象科学。该项目的研究成果将进一步纳入PI的既定课程，以继续造福他的学生，并培训下一代科学家进行空间天气研究。

The principal investigator (PI) will study the evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space between the Sun and the Earth, in order to refine predictions of their arrival times at Earth and of their potential geoeffectiveness. To achieve this goal, the PI will use a variety of measurements to fully track and characterize the kinematic and morphological evolution of CMEs, including remote sensing data and 'in situ' solar wind observations from spacecraft. Using a first-principles-based approach, the PI will also create appropriate theoretical flux rope models consistent with observational constraints, in order to fully understand the physical processes that govern a CME's evolution. Finally, the PI will develop an effective CME arrival time prediction model, based on comprehensive observations and improved characterization of a large number of CME events and a robust theoretical model. The PI recognizes that CMEs are a known driver of severe space weather events in the near-Earth space environment. Since CME disturbances in geospace can affect the safety of astronauts, as well as interfere with satellite operations for communication and navigation, this effort will have positive broader impacts for society by improving our predicative capabilities for CME evolution, arrival, and geoeffective impact at Earth. This project will also facilitate the integration of research and education, since most of the requested funding will be used to support a graduate student and a postdoctoral researcher. The PI has already developed two graduate courses in solar and heliospheric physics, and he educates students at George Mason University in the space weather sciences. The research results of this project will be further integrated into the PI's established curriculum, for the continued benefit of his students and for training the next generation of scientists in space weather research.